copy the linklink copied!Chapter 5. A scorecard for monitoring implementation of the policy recommendations
This chapter offers a scorecard containing a series of indicators for monitoring progress on the implementation of the proposed reforms on social protection, health, and education and skills. First, it presents the methodology behind the scorecard; then, it presents the targets that Paraguay should achieve for each indicator by 2030.
Paraguay has set the measure of success of its 2030 development agenda at the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals, with due priority to certain key areas that require extra government intervention, given the specific situation in the country. Paraguay has set itself the goal of being a country that is competitive, has high levels of social development, is connected and open to the world, is environmentally and economically sustainable, has high levels of legal security and public safety, attends to the needs of indigenous peoples, fosters an active role by women, and has democratic and transparent state institutions that promote equal opportunity (Republic of Paraguay, 2014[1]).
Tools to monitor the implementation of public policies can help Paraguay to achieve the goals it has set in terms of inclusive growth and well-being. This chapter offers a series of monitoring indicators to improve the Paraguayan government’s capacity to monitor its progress towards the development goals. The proposed indicators are closely related to the policy recommendations made during all stages of the Multi-dimensional Review of Paraguay, especially Volume 2 (OECD, 2018[2]) and in this report, and have been validated by the Paraguayan administration. The indicators give an overview of progress towards the goals of (i) a social protection system for all, (ii) a health system that encourages healthier lifestyles, and (iii) an education system and skills that promote inclusion and employability.
By setting specific objectives and regularly monitoring achievements, the scorecard contributes to the transparency of the Paraguayan government’s work. Allowing citizens and stakeholders to monitor the progress of the development agenda in this way is essential to ensure there is a balanced social contract. Furthermore, using more and better accountability tools improves the public administration’s capacity and fosters civic participation. To achieve these aims, the scorecard needs recent, high-quality data that are properly disaggregated.
copy the linklink copied!The scorecard offers indicators for achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals for 2030
For each of the thematic areas analysed in the Multi-dimensional Review of Paraguay (social protection; health; and education and skills), the scorecard presents a series of primary and secondary indicators, as well as targets for 2030 for each indicator. The primary indicators measure the overall progress in each of the three policy areas, while the secondary indicators are a more precise measure of the extent to which the expected results of the proposed reforms have been achieved.
For each indicator, the scorecard presents some historical values to show the progress made and specifies at least one of three alternative targets to be achieved by 2030. The scorecard combines data from international sources with local data and surveys. Three criteria were used to set the 2030 targets:
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1. Generally, the targets were set using a methodology that compared Paraguay’s performance with that of countries with a similar income per capita. The benchmarking countries used to calculate the targets using regression analysis included lower middle-income, upper middle-income and upper middle-income countries (see Box 5.1).
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2. A superscript “n” denotes targets that reflect the national objectives specified in the Paraguay 2030 National Development Plan (Republic of Paraguay, 2014[1]), institutional targets or targets agreed with the government throughout the process of this review.
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3. A superscript “a” denotes alternative targets calculated as the average of the figure for the last year available among the group of upper middle-income and high-income countries.
The first methodology uses a three-step procedure:
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1. First, the target gross domestic product (GDP) per capita for 2030 was calculated using the 2017 GDP per capita (USD 8 827) and the constant annual GDP growth rate (6.8%), as specified in the 2030 National Development Plan (Republic of Paraguay, 2014[1]). The result was a 2030 target GDP per capita of USD 15 995.
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2. Next, for each indicator, regression analysis was performed using the GDP per capita of each country in the sample, except for high-income, upper middle-income and lower middle-income countries with an atypical GDP per capita, which were excluded from the analysis. The calculations are based on the value of the indicator in 2017 or the latest available year. In each regression equation, the dependent variable is the indicator in question for country i in 2017 (or the latest available year), and the independent variable is the GDP per capita of country i in 2017 (or the latest available year):
(1)
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3. For each indicator and the estimated respective coefficients, the 2030 targets for Paraguay are derived. In particular, the estimated intercept (which captures the average characteristics of the group of benchmarking countries) is added to the product of the estimated GDP per capita coefficient (as calculated in step 2) and the long-term target GDP per capita (as calculated in step 1):
(2)
The targets presented in the scorecard should be interpreted with caution. Specific sampling areas for each of the sources, for instance, could distort the estimates. Furthermore, in the first methodology, the way equations 1 and 2 model the relationship between the indicators and the GDP per capita may fail to capture non-linearity, thus introducing other specification errors.
The estimates do not take into account possible future shocks and global trends, which could accelerate or slow down changes in certain indicators, further distorting the estimates. Nevertheless, the scorecard gives an overview of the trend that Paraguay needs to follow to achieve inclusive and sustainable growth over the long term. The target values should therefore be interpreted in the light of historical values, rather than based only on changes from one year to the next.
Reforming to foster healthier lives in Paraguay
To increase its chances of achieving universal health coverage, Paraguay’s health system requires systemic reform and a future vision. Maintaining the pace of growth of health funding while increasing the equity and efficiency of the service is a major challenge. The fragmentation of the health system into prepaid private, general budget-based public and insurance-based social security systems is a significant hurdle to ensure effective stewardship and efficient allocation of resources in the system. A national dialogue could determine what model the country chooses, in particular in terms of its financing – whether an insurance-based model in which coverage for those unable to pay is subsidised, preferably explicitly, by the public purse, or a national health service model in which a basic package of health services is provided for free to all citizens. In both cases, it is possible for the various segments that make up the system today to co-exist, but in a much more integrated fashion.
The Paraguayan health system is faced with major challenges in achieving universal coverage. To respond to the double burden of diseases among the population, it needs to secure sustainable funding, ensure it is run more efficiently and strengthen its stewardship (OECD, 2018[2]). The country has undertaken a series of reforms to modernise the system, laying the foundations for a new approach to health care based on primary care. However, it has not significantly altered the foundations of the health system and its fragmentation into multiple subsystems.
A series of primary indicators (general) and secondary indicators (to follow the policy recommendations of Volume 2 of the MDCR) were strategically identified. This compilation of indicators is included with the objective of providing a tool for monitoring progress towards the development objectives of Paraguay in the area of health (see Table 5.2 and Table 5.3).
Moving towards social protection for all in Paraguay
Paraguay should standardise its pension system to increase the system’s equity. At present, the various pension plans’ parameters (e.g. contribution rates, retirement age and replacement rates) vary widely, which leads to inequality. Paraguay should reform its pension system to overcome these inequalities. Key steps towards an equitable system include unifying the retirement ages, the benefit calculation base and the replacement and accrual rates. All retirement pensions would be updated using the same method.
Strengthening the link between benefits and contributions is essential to ensure the system’s sustainability. This link can be reinforced by increasing the number of years used to calculate the retirement pension and by regularly reviewing the benefit level and contribution rates. Benefit levels should have a ceiling and reflect the decreasing contributor-per-pensioner ratio. The periodic review of contribution rates should be based on actuarial studies, demographic developments, the economic situation, the ratio between pensioners and contributors, and the financial soundness of each pension plan.
A series of primary indicators (general) and secondary indicators (to follow the policy recommendations of Volume 2 of the MDCR) were strategically identified. This compilation of indicators is included with the objective of providing a tool for monitoring progress towards the development objectives of Paraguay in the area of social protection (see Table 5.4 and Table 5.5).
Towards an education and skills system that fosters inclusiveness and employability in Paraguay
Transforming the education and skills system in Paraguay is vital to foster inclusiveness and better access to good-quality jobs. Education and development go hand in hand, and Paraguay’s success in achieving its main development objectives, as set out in the Paraguay 2030 National Development Plan, will depend largely on its capacity to improve the education and skills system.
Substantial progress has been made, but further reforms are needed, as set out in Volumes 1 and 2, of the Multi-dimensional Review of Paraguay, namely:
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Coverage and funding: Policies must continue to expand education coverage and foster completion of studies, particularly among the most disadvantaged groups.
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Quality of education: Policies to improve learning outcomes must focus on teachers, educational resources and the management of schools.
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Relevant teaching: Policies to make education more relevant must focus on reforming the curriculum of upper secondary education (educación media) so that it favours labour-market insertion and provides a more solid basis for accessing higher education.
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Education for employment: Policies to favour good-quality school-to-work transitions in Paraguay must move towards a national, integrated technical and vocational education and training (TVET) system.
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Skills supply and demand: Policies to improve the match between the supply and demand of skills in Paraguay should not be limited to improving the relevance of skills.
A series of primary indicators (general) and secondary indicators (to follow the policy recommendations of Volume 2 of the MDCR) were strategically identified. This compilation of indicators is included with the objective of providing a tool for monitoring progress towards the development objectives of Paraguay in the area of education (see Table 5.6 and Table 5.7).
References
[5] DGEEC (2014), Encuesta Permanente de Hogares [Permanent Household Survey] (database), Dirección General de Estadística, Encuestas y Censos, Fernando de la Mora, http://www.dgeec.gov.py/microdatos/index.php.
[2] OECD (2018), Multi-dimensional Review of Paraguay: Volume 2. In-depth Analysis and Recommendations, OECD Development Pathways, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264306202-en.
[3] Republic of Paraguay (2018), Decreto Nº159/18: Por el cual se fijan las tasas del impuesto selectivo al consumo para los bienes comprendidos en la sección I del artículo 106 de la ley N° 125/1991, Asuncion.
[1] Republic of Paraguay (2014), Plan Nacional de Desarrollo Paraguay 2030 [National Development Plan 2030], Asuncion.
[4] WHO (2015), WHO Report on the global tobacco epidemic, 2015. Raising taxes on tobacco, World Health Organization, Geneva.
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