Foreword

There has been a long downward trend in birth rates across many OECD countries, but until 2010 Norway remained in the upper echelon of OECD countries, with fertility rates relatively close to replacement level. However, with the postponement of parenthood, fewer large families, and increased childlessness, the fertility rate in Norway is now below the OECD average. Why has this happened? Can Norwegian parents still reconcile work and family commitments? And what role do demographic trends play for the future of the Norwegian society?

This study addresses these issues, building on the OECD’s rich body of data and policy work on families and children. It illustrates various aspects of fertility trends, as well as changes in the Norwegian labour market and Norway’s comprehensive system of public family support. The study also looks at social attitudes and how these might be affecting family formation and fertility trends. The final chapter projects demographic, economic, fiscal and social outcomes under different fertility trend scenarios.

This report was prepared by a team of analysts in the Social Policy Division of the OECD Directorate of Employment, Labour and Social Affairs (ELS) led by Willem Adema, including Jonas Fluchtmann and Maja Gustafsson. Pauline Fron and Violetta van Veen provided statistical support. Monika Queisser (Senior Counsellor and Head of the Social Policy Division) supervised the project under the leadership of Stefano Scarpetta (Director, ELS) and Mark Pearson (Deputy-Director, ELS).

We are very grateful to all Norwegian officials, experts and stakeholders who made time available to discuss their area of expertise with us during the “virtual fact-finding mission” in 2022. We thank Per Jacob Tehel and his colleagues Lene Buer Blomqvist, Maria Brit Espinoza, Terje Solberg, Eirik Rønning Strand in the Ministry of Children and Families for their inputs throughout the process. Natalie Corry, Lucy Hulett, and Eva Rauser prepared the report for publication, with Alastair Wood providing communications support.

The OECD gratefully acknowledges the financial support by the Royal Norwegian Ministry of Children and Families towards the preparation of this report.