Executive summary
Governments’ structures and operations are traditionally geared to respond to well-identified and sequential challenges rather than grand challenges of a complex and uncertain nature. Classic steering mechanisms often fail to acknowledge the complexity and interdependence of policy issues. Yet, economic and social security futures hinge on climate change, global trade flows, and how quickly and effectively the global community responds to threats like pandemics. Anticipatory innovation governance, or AIG -- defined as a “broad-based capacity to actively explore possibilities, experiment, and continuously learn as part of a broader governance system” -- can help national and international decision makers not only make sense of the ambiguity of future-oriented policy issues but also start working on them using a variety of tools and methods to explore and shape those futures.
The report addresses a considerable gap in prior knowledge and guidance on how governments prepare for unknowable futures. It consists of three parts: an overview of the anticipatory innovation governance model (Part I), the assessment of the anticipatory innovation capacity of the Finnish Government (Part II) and the pilot case studies where the principles and functions of the model were explored in practice (Part III).
The assessment of the governance system in Finland looked at the assets, preconditions, and gaps within the wider public sector policy-making and steering system in Finland that may affect the implementation of an anticipatory innovation approach. This initial research identified six main challenge areas for the Finnish government, including:
Overcoming the strategic foresight impact gap by integrating futures and foresight with core strategic processes, innovation and experimentation
Opening up the development of policy alternatives connected to future challenges by systematically involving citizens and other stakeholders in future-oriented policy creation
Strengthening the capacity of public servants to reflect and act on future policy challenges by increasing access to and experience with anticipatory innovation approaches and tools
Ensuring that traditional government policy steering mechanisms – strategic, budgetary, and legal – allow for (and do not inhibit) the exploration of policy alternatives and tackling of complex problems
Using anticipatory governance mechanisms to allow complex and long-term policy issues to be collectively understood and sustained across the policy cycle
Countering government silos and creating new ways of collaboration to address emerging problems in a cross-governmental manner
To tackle these challenges and test the anticipatory innovation governance model in development, four policy domains were identified as case studies to gain a greater understanding of how to build Finland's anticipatory capacity. The cases provided lessons about the effective governance of anticipatory innovation, demonstrating how Finland’s governance structures can deal with shifting values, new public expectations, and uncertain future shocks in order to address concrete policy challenges. These cases are:
Continuous learning: the world of work is continuously transformed by the complex interaction of trends such as automation, climate change and an aging population, which, in turn, affect the demand for skills. Against this backdrop, Finland has recognised the need for a reform of continuous learning to create a system that is able to anticipate and respond to changes in the demand for skills and learning across the labour market and broader society. This pilot case explores how anticipatory innovation governance could facilitate the development and implementation of the Continuous Learning Reform.
Carbon neutrality: Finland aims to be carbon neutral by 2035 and eventually become the world’s first fossil-fuel-free welfare society. However, no governance model can support a transition to carbon neutrality unless it can constantly perceive, understand, and act upon changes as they emerge. The case study explores how anticipatory innovation governance approaches could be applied to support the country’s transition to carbon neutrality.
Child well-being: Finland published its first National Child Strategy in February 2021. The goal is to formulate a vision for a child- and family-friendly Finland that transcends both electoral terms and administrative boundaries. The Strategy is to be implemented alongside changes occurring as part of Finland’s social and welfare (SOTE) reform, which completely rethinks how child well-being services are governed and organised. The case study looks at how, by implementing some of the mechanisms of AIG, Finland can address existing challenges while preparing to better meet the needs of future generations.
Collaboration between politicians and public officials: Finland aims to better incorporate the anticipatory innovation function within its governance structure. To date, future-oriented policy making in Finland is conducted mainly by a 'coalition of the willing' and co-exists alongside traditional policy-making processes and mechanisms. The case study looks at how different actors within the Finnish government can work together on anticipatory policy making and what forms of collaboration between public officials and politicians could be instrumental.
Stemming from these case studies and the overall analysis, there are steps that the Finnish Government could take to make anticipatory innovation capacity more systematic across government. These include:
Systematise the government transition process to improve the continuity of long-term reforms and institutional memory.
Develop new methods and governance approaches to plan responses to emerging issues.
Establish structures for regular collective sense-making, visioning and exploration of alternatives.
Test new approaches to allocate budgetary resources to emerging phenomena.
Design training, teams, and roles to increase the understanding and application of anticipatory approaches.
Institutionalise dialogue and deliberation to build trust among citizens, public officials, and politicians in order to enable greater engagement with uncertainty.
There is a need to understand anticipatory innovation as an ongoing practice requiring continuous investment and reflection rather than a set of isolated efforts. Despite the challenges identified, the Finnish government shows an outstanding commitment to constantly adjusting its way of doing things and to striving towards better policy making. Most of the action points identified in this report are relevant to any organisation wanting to establish or improve its approach to anticipatory innovation governance, whether at the beginning or well along in its journey towards effective anticipation.