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Indicator B3. Who is expected to graduate from upper secondary education?
On average across OECD countries, 51% of male graduates from upper secondary vocational programmes earn a qualification in the field of engineering, manufacturing and construction against 11% of female graduates.
In all countries with available data, the share of students with at least one tertiary-educated parent is considerably higher in upper secondary general programmes than in vocational ones.
If current graduation patterns continue, 80% of adults are expected to graduate from upper secondary education for the first time before they turn 25 in more than two-thirds of the countries with available data.
Context
Upper secondary education, which develops students’ basic skills and knowledge through either academic or vocational pathways, aims to prepare students to enter further levels of education or the labour market and to become engaged citizens. In many countries, this level of education is not compulsory and can last from two to five years. Providing an upper secondary education of quality, that is beneficial for both the society and the economy, is something that should be taken into account when interpreting this indicator.
Post-secondary non-tertiary education provides learning experiences that prepare for entry into the labour market or tertiary education. It aims at the individual acquisition of knowledge, skills and competencies at a lower level of complexity that is characteristic of tertiary education.
In most OECD countries, almost all students in lower secondary school enrol in upper secondary education and on average about seven out of ten students directly enter tertiary education (Education at a Glance Database). In general, demand for upper secondary education is increasing worldwide, with the development of a variety of educational pathways. In fact, graduating from upper secondary education has become increasingly important in all countries, as the skills needed in the labour market are becoming more knowledge-based, and workers are progressively required to adapt to the uncertainties of a rapidly changing global economy.
In the COVID-19 context, critical disruptions to education systems have occurred across OECD and partner countries. In particular, graduation criteria and examinations have significantly been redesigned to adjust to the unprecedented situation. At upper secondary level, where examinations are most prevalent to certify the completion of this level, some flexibility in the mode of examinations and assessments has been necessary. Some countries have retained only school marks as the graduation criteria, others have postponed or rescheduled the examinations, whereas still others have automatically promoted students to the next level at the end of the academic year. Whatever the option chosen by countries to assess the completion of upper secondary education, the graduation ratios (i.e. the ratio of upper secondary graduates to students enrolled in the last year of upper secondary education) have been significantly impacted (OECD, 2021[1]).
Other findings
The share of women tends to be significantly higher in upper secondary general programmes than in vocational programmes. On average across OECD countries, women make up 55% of upper secondary graduates from general programmes, compared to 45% for vocational programmes.
Being a first or second-generation immigrant affects students’ likelihood of completing upper secondary education. In almost all countries with available data, the completion rate of first- or second-generation immigrants was lower than students without an immigrant background.
Between 2013 and 2019, first-time graduation rates increased by 1 percentage point at the upper secondary level and remained constant at the post-secondary non-tertiary level, on average across OECD countries.
Note
Graduation rates represent the estimated percentage of people from a given age cohort who are expected to graduate within the country at some point during their lifetime. This estimate is based on the number of graduates in 2019 and the age distribution of this group. Graduation rates are based on both the population and the current pattern of graduation and are thus sensitive to any changes in the education system, such as the introduction of new programmes or changes in the duration of programmes. Graduation rates can be very high during a period when an unexpected number of people go back to school.
In this edition of Education at a Glance, the focus is predominately on first-time graduates below the typical age (25 for upper secondary education and 30 for post-secondary non-tertiary education). The concept of graduates (i.e. all graduates, not only first-time graduates) is used when measuring average age, share of female graduates and graduates by field of study (see Definitions section).
Gender profile of upper secondary graduates
An upper secondary qualification is often considered to be the minimum credential for successful entry into the labour market and necessary for continuing to further education. Young people who leave school before completing upper secondary education tend to face challenges in the labour market, including worse employment prospects (see Indicator A4). At upper secondary level, students face decisions on their programme orientation and field of study. However, men and women make very different choices, which influences their options for higher education and their expected labour-market outcomes. The socio-economic background of students may also influence their choice of upper secondary programme as well as the completion of this level (Box B3.1). Understanding these choices and their implications is central to ensuring inclusive educational opportunities and defining policies that address inequalities.
Upper secondary graduation, by programme orientation
Vocational pathways are an important part of upper secondary education in many OECD countries, and allow students to gain practical experience in their chosen career path. In 2019, on average across OECD countries, 38% of upper secondary graduates obtained a vocational qualification, ranging from 6% in Canada to 76% in Austria.
Traditionally, men have had higher incentives to graduate from upper secondary vocational programmes than women (Education at a glance Database). On average across OECD countries, in 2019, women made up 55% of upper secondary graduates in general programmes, compared to 45% in vocational programmes (Figure B3.1). This has strong implications on men’s opportunities to pursue higher education. Indeed, two-thirds of students enrolled in upper secondary vocational education are receiving an education that theoretically provides them with the opportunity to directly enter tertiary education, against more than 90% of students in general upper secondary education (Indicator B7; OECD (2020[2]).
In almost all countries with available data, women make up at least half of upper secondary graduates from general programmes, ranging from 49% in Korea to 61% in Slovenia and 62% in Italy. In contrast, women are under-represented in vocational programmes in more than three-quarters of the countries with available data. There is, however, significant cross-country variation in upper secondary vocational programmes, where the share of women ranges from less than 34% in Estonia, Hungary and Iceland to more than 60% in Ireland. In fact, Ireland is one of just five countries where women make up a higher share of graduates in vocational programmes than in general programmes. In the other four countries, Brazil, Colombia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom, the difference between the share of women in vocational and general programmes is much smaller (less than 5 percentage points).
Upper secondary vocational graduation, by field of study
Young people’s choice of field of study when pursuing vocational education is still highly influential on career choices and employment outcomes. However, differences are commonly observed between the fields chosen by men and women. This may be due to natural inclination and preferences as well as social perceptions of what women and men excel at and the careers they can pursue.
The largest share, about a third of students in upper secondary vocational education, graduated from engineering, manufacturing and construction programmes in 2019, followed by business, administration and law (17%); services (17%); and health and welfare (12%). However, this pattern does not hold for every country. In Brazil, Luxembourg and Switzerland, most upper secondary vocational graduates obtained a qualification in business, administration and law. In Ireland, the Netherlands and Spain, the most popular field was health and welfare, and in Italy and Portugal, it was services (Table B3.1).
There are stark gender differences in the fields of study that upper secondary vocational students choose. Women are far more likely than men to study subjects relating to business, administration and law as well as health and welfare. Men, for their part, are more likely to choose engineering as well as information, communication and technology, which are in great demand in the labour market in OECD countries. These differences can be attributed to traditional perceptions of gender roles and identities as well as the cultural values sometimes associated with particular fields of education. Some studies have shown that these gender differences in the choice of field of study are mirrored in the career expectations of 15-year-olds: on average across OECD countries, only 14% of the girls who were top performers in science or mathematics reported that they expect to work in science or engineering, compared with 26% of the top-performing boys. However, in Estonia, Finland, Poland and Slovenia, top-performing boys and girls were equally likely to report that they expect to work in those fields (OECD, 2018[3]).
Few women in upper secondary vocational education pursue a programme in engineering, manufacturing and construction: only 10% of graduates did so in 2019. Costa Rica is the only country where the gender gap is in favour of women: 34% of women graduate from upper secondary vocational programmes in engineering, manufacturing and construction, against 23% of men (Figure B3.2). In contrast, female graduates are over-represented in health and welfare (83%); business, administration and law (63%); and services (58%) (Table B3.1).
In the COVID-19 context, most of the health-care workforce in the frontline were women (Gabster et al., 2020[4]). The resource issue in the health sector and the shortages of nurses across most OECD economies has imposed an extra burden for women. Ensuring that more men enter into the health and welfare sector could probably help resolve this and tackle a silent gender gap.
Gender profile of post-secondary non-tertiary graduates
Various kinds of post-secondary non-tertiary programmes (ISCED level 4) are offered in OECD countries. These programmes straddle upper secondary and post-secondary education and may be considered either upper secondary or post-secondary programmes, depending on the country. Although the content of these programmes may not be significantly more advanced than upper secondary programmes, they broaden the knowledge of individuals who have already attained an upper secondary qualification. Mainly vocationally oriented, post-secondary non-tertiary programmes are relatively less prominent in the educational landscape compared to other levels of education. About 1% of 15-19 year-olds enrolled in post-secondary non-tertiary education in 2019 (Education at a Glance Database); eight OECD countries do not offer this level of education: Chile, Costa Rica, Korea, Mexico, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Turkey and the United Kingdom (Table B3.3).
Post-secondary non-tertiary graduation, by programme orientation
On average across OECD countries, around 95% of post-secondary non-tertiary first-time graduates have graduated from vocational programmes (Table B3.2). Professionalisation is particularly high at this level of education, as post-secondary non-tertiary programmes are most often designed for direct entry into the labour market. There are some national initiatives to provide general programmes at post-secondary non-tertiary level to target students who have completed a vocational upper secondary level and want to increase their chances of entering tertiary education. For instance, in Switzerland, a one-year general programme, the University aptitude test, prepares graduates from vocational upper secondary education to enter general programmes at the tertiary level (OECD/Eurostat/UNESCO, 2015[5]).
Post-secondary non-tertiary graduation, by field of study
On average across OECD countries, 23% of post-secondary non-tertiary graduates in vocational programmes specialised in health and welfare; 21% in engineering, manufacturing and construction; and 18% in both business, administration and law and services. However, this pattern is not always repeated across countries. In Luxembourg, for instance, 62% of post-secondary non-tertiary graduates obtained a qualification in engineering, manufacturing and construction whereas in Austria the share is only 1% (Table B3.2).
On average across OECD countries, women make up 54% of post-secondary non-tertiary vocational graduates, but there are significant variations across countries, ranging from 23% in Luxembourg to 76% in Poland. This counterbalances with the under-representation of women in upper secondary vocational education. There are two main reasons women are over-represented in post-secondary non-tertiary education but not in upper secondary education. First, women have a higher completion rate for upper secondary vocational education than men and are therefore more likely to continue their studies in post-secondary education. Second, women are more strongly represented in certain broad fields of study such as health and social welfare, and business, administration and law – fields which are very prevalent in short-cycle tertiary vocational education at tertiary level, but especially in post-secondary non-tertiary education (OECD, 2020[2]).
In almost all countries with available data, women make up more than half of post-secondary non-tertiary graduates from vocational programmes, except in Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Portugal and the Russian Federation. The percentage of women pursuing a programme in engineering, manufacturing and construction is low at the post-secondary non-tertiary level: they make up only 17% of graduates in this field. In contrast, women are over-represented in health and welfare, where the share of female graduates is 70% or more in all countries with available data, except Denmark (25%) and Estonia (68%). There is more gender balance in the field of services, where on average 60% of graduates are women, and business, administration and law, where the figure is 64% (Table B3.2).
First-time graduation rates
Upper secondary education is often considered to be the minimum credential for successful entry into the labour market and necessary for continuing to further education. The costs of not completing this level of education on time can be considerable to both individuals and society, as those that do not attain it are more likely to be neither employed nor in education or training (NEET – see indicator A2). Graduation rates offer an indication of whether government initiatives have been successful in increasing the share of people who graduate from upper secondary education. The large differences in graduation rates among countries reflect the variety of systems and programmes available, as well as other country-specific factors, such as current social norms and economic performance.
It is estimated that 80% of adults will graduate from upper secondary for the first time before age 25 if current graduation patterns continue on average across OECD countries. There are, however, large variations across countries. In Greece, Korea and Slovenia, more than 90% of adults are expected to graduate from upper secondary education for the first time before 25 compared to less than 60% in Costa Rica (Table B3.3).
Generally, graduation from upper secondary education remained stable on average across OECD countries between 2013 and 2019, increasing by 1 percentage point over the period. However, some countries witnessed an exceptional expansion of upper secondary graduation over this period. In Mexico and Turkey, the share of adults expected to graduate from upper secondary education for the first time before age 25 rose by at least 15 percentage points between 2013 and 2019. In contrast, the share of adults expected to graduate for the first time from upper secondary education before the age of 25 fell by at least 8 percentage points in Portugal and Sweden over the same period. In some countries, the expansion in upper secondary graduation remained marginal between 2013 and 2019, following earlier policies to expand access to upper secondary education. More than 90% of adults were already expected to graduate from upper secondary education before they turned 25 in Greece and Israel by 2005 and graduation levels have remained similar since (Table B3.3).
Post-secondary non-tertiary graduation rates
First-time graduation rates from post-secondary non-tertiary education are low compared to those from upper secondary programmes. On average, it is estimated that 6% of today’s young adults in OECD countries will complete post-secondary non-tertiary programmes before they turn 30 if current graduation patterns continue. The only countries where first-time graduation rates from post-secondary non-tertiary programmes exceeded 20% are Germany and New Zealand. For OECD countries with available data for 2005, 2013 and 2019, the first-time graduation rate of adults below the age of 30 has remained constant over the past decade (around 7% on average).
Studies have shown that students’ educational attainment and performance are strongly associated with their socio-economic status (OECD, 2021[6]). Several factors may explain the negative impact of a disadvantaged background on students: a lack of a stimulating home environment and low financial and psychological support or few learning opportunities at home (Thomson, 2018[7]).
This box examines the extent to which students’ choice of upper secondary programme and completion of this level of education differ for individuals from potentially disadvantaged backgrounds, identified through two measures: parents’ highest level of educational attainment and immigrant background.
Equity in students’ choice of upper secondary programme orientation
Across OECD countries, there is increasing interest in the development of vocational upper secondary programmes as an alternative for young people seeking to acquire labour-market skills. It has also been found that graduating from a vocational programme has a positive effect on graduates’ employability, because of their early entry into the labour market. The transition to work is faster for upper secondary graduates from vocational programmes than for those enrolled in general programmes: they are more likely to get a permanent first job and are less likely to find themselves in a first job with a qualification mismatch (OECD, 2019[8]). These programmes are not meant to be seen as a second-best option for low achievers, but as centres of excellence for developing important skills.
Nevertheless, vocational education also raises equity concerns, especially if the decision to enrol in vocational programmes is mainly determined by students’ socio-economic background. Figure B3.4 shows the composition of general and vocational programmes by parents’ educational attainment. In all countries with available data, students whose parents have lower educational attainment are substantially over-represented in vocational programmes.
In nearly every country with available data, the share of students whose parents have not attained upper secondary education is at least twice as high among entrants to vocational programmes as among entrants to general programmes. This gap can be even more striking at the other end of the spectrum, for students with at least one tertiary-educated parent. In France, for example, students with at least one tertiary-educated parent represent 49% of general programmes, but only 13% of vocational programmes.
Source: OECD (2020). See Source section for more information and Annex 3 for notes (https://www.oecd.org/education/education-at-a-glance/EAG2021_Annex3_ChapterB.pdf).
The magnitude and attractiveness of vocational programmes can, however, vary widely across countries. Among the countries presented in Figure B3.4, the share of upper secondary graduates who obtain a vocational degree ranges from about one-fifth in Denmark and Estonia to more than two-thirds in Switzerland (Table B3.1). The share is even higher in other OECD countries without data available for Figure B3.4, such as Austria, the Czech Republic, the Slovak Republic, where over two-thirds of upper secondary graduates obtain a vocational degree.
Equity in completion of upper secondary education
In addition to influencing the choice of upper secondary programme orientation, the socio-economic background of students can have an important impact on their educational outcomes. Figure B3.5 explores the completion rate of upper secondary programmes by the theoretical duration of programmes plus two years, disaggregated by students’ immigrant background.
Being a first- or second-generation immigrant affects students’ likelihood of completing upper secondary education. In almost all countries with available data, the completion rate of first-generation immigrants (those born outside the country and whose parents were both also born in another country, excluding international students) or second-generation immigrants (those born in the country, but whose parents were both born in another country) was lower than students without an immigrant background. The difference in completion rates among those with an immigrant background, however, differs across countries. While first-generation students have lower completion rates than second-generation students in most countries, in some countries this depends on their age at arrival in the host country. Thus, in Iceland, 75% of non-immigrants complete upper secondary education on time, compared to 79% of first-generation immigrants (who arrived at or before age 6) and only 35% of first-generation immigrants (who arrived after age 6).
A plausible explanation for the lower outcomes of first-generation immigrants is the language barrier, particularly for students who arrive in the host country at an older age. In other countries, such as Finland, the gap in completion between first-generation and second-generation students is quite small.
2. The standard errors are included when data are provided through a survey.
Source: OECD (2020). See Source section for more information and Annex 3 for notes (https://www.oecd.org/education/education-at-a-glance/EAG2021_Annex3_ChapterB.pdf).
The difference in completion rates between non-immigrant students and first-generation immigrants is more than 10 percentage points in Finland, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden. In most countries with available data, second-generation immigrants have higher completion rates than first-generation immigrants, though this difference tends to be smaller in magnitude than the difference between non-immigrant students and either immigrant group.
Children from disadvantaged social groups not only face more barriers to accessing education, but their performance and outcomes once in education are also lower than those of their more advantaged counterparts. Education outcomes among students with an immigrant background or from families with low levels of educational attainment should be an area of focus among education policy makers, particularly in countries where these students show significantly lower completion rates than their peers from more advantaged social groups.
First-time graduates refer to students who have graduated for the first time at a given level of education during the reference period. Therefore, if a student has graduated multiple times over the years, he or she is counted as a graduate each year, but as a first-time graduate only once per level of education.
First-time graduation rate represents the expected probability of graduating for the first time at a given level of education before the age threshold (25 for upper secondary education and 30 for post-secondary non-tertiary education) if current patterns are maintained.
Net graduation rates represent the estimated percentage of an age group who will complete a given level of education, based on current patterns of graduation.
Typical age is the age at the beginning of the last school/academic year of the corresponding educational level and programme when the degree is obtained.
Unless otherwise indicated, graduation rates are calculated as net graduation rates (i.e.as the sum of age-specific graduation rates) up to an age threshold. The net graduation rate for a single age is obtained by dividing the number of first-time graduates of that age by the total population of the corresponding age. The sum of net graduation rates is calculated by adding the rates for each year of age until the age threshold. The result represents the expected probability of graduating for the first time from upper secondary education before the age threshold if current patterns are maintained. The age threshold refers to the upper limit for completing either an upper secondary or post-secondary non-tertiary degree. Age 25 is used as the upper limit for completing upper secondary education. At the post-secondary non-tertiary level, 30 is considered to be the upper age limit for graduation. The graduation rate below typical age is calculated only if the share of graduates reported with unknown age is below the quality threshold of 10%. Graduates of unknown age are excluded from the calculation of these indicators which may lead to slight underestimation of the rate, particularly when their share is close to the threshold.
Gross graduation rates are used when data by age are missing and where the average age of graduation is well below the age threshold considered for the calculation of this indicator. In this case, the number of graduates of which the age is unknown is divided by the population at the typical graduation age (see Annex 1).
The average age of students is calculated from 1 January for countries where the academic year starts in the second semester of the calendar year and 1 July for countries where the academic year starts in the first semester of the calendar year. As a consequence, the average age of new entrants may be overestimated by up to six months, while that of first-time graduates may be underestimated by the same.
Graduation rates are sensitive to changes in the education system, such as the introduction of new programmes. Rates could at times be very high, during periods when there are unexpectedly high numbers of graduates. This indicator also reports the share of first-time graduates below the age threshold, alongside the graduation rate, to provide contextual information on the relevance of the age threshold for each country.
For more information, please see the OECD Handbook for Internationally Comparative Education Statistics (OECD, 2017[9]).
Data refer to the academic year 2018/19 and are based on the OECD/UIS/Eurostat data collection on education statistics administered by the OECD in 2020 (for details, see Annex 3 at: https://www.oecd.org/education/education-at-a-glance/EAG2021_Annex3_ChapterB.pdf).
References
[4] Gabster, B. et al. (2020), “Challenges for the female academic during the COVID-19 pandemic”, The Lancet, Vol. 395/10242, pp. 1968-1970, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(20)31412-4.
[6] OECD (2021), 21st-Century Readers: Developing Literacy Skills in a Digital World, PISA, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/a83d84cb-en.
[1] OECD (2021), The State of School Education: One Year into the COVID Pandemic, OECD, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/201dde84-en.
[2] OECD (2020), Education at a Glance 2020: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/19991487.
[8] OECD (2019), Education at a Glance 2019: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/f8d7880d-en.
[3] OECD (2018), PISA 2018 Results (Volume II): Where All Students Can Succeed, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/b5fd1b8f-en.
[9] OECD (2017), OECD Handbook for Internationally Comparative Education Statistics: Concepts, Standards, Definitions and Classifications, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264279889-en.
[5] OECD/Eurostat/UNESCO (2015), ISCED 2011 Operational Manual: Guidelines for Classifying National Education Programmes and Related Qualifications, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264228368-en.
[7] Thomson, S. (2018), “Achievement at school and socioeconomic background: An educational perspective”, npj Science of Learning, Vol. 3/5, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41539-018-0022-0.
Cut-off date for the data: 17 June 2021. Any updates on data can be found on line at: https://doi.org/10.1787/eag-data-en. More breakdowns can also be found at: http://stats.oecd.org, Education at a Glance Database.
Table B3.1. Profile of upper secondary graduates from vocational programmes (2019) |
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Note: This table does not include data for all fields of study. The data for other fields are available at: http://stats.oecd.org, Education at a Glance Database. |
Source: OECD/UIS/Eurostat (2021). See Source section for more information and Annex 3 for notes (https://www.oecd.org/education/education-at-a-glance/EAG2021_Annex3_ChapterB.pdf). Please refer to the Reader’s Guide for information concerning symbols for missing data and abbreviations. |
Table B3.2. Profile of post-secondary non-tertiary graduates from vocational programmes (2019) |
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Note: This table does not include data for all fields of study. The data for other fields are available at: http://stats.oecd.org, Education at a Glance Database. |
Source: OECD/UIS/Eurostat (2021). See Source section for more information and Annex 3 for notes (https://www.oecd.org/education/education-at-a-glance/EAG2021_Annex3_ChapterB.pdf). Please refer to the Reader’s Guide for information concerning symbols for missing data and abbreviations. |
Table B3.3. Trends in upper secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary first-time graduation rates (2005, 2013 and 2019) |
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1. Post-secondary non-tertiary included in upper secondary education level. |
Source: OECD/UIS/Eurostat (2021). See Source section for more information and Annex 3 for notes (https://www.oecd.org/education/education-at-a-glance/EAG2021_Annex3_ChapterB.pdf). Please refer to the Reader’s Guide for information concerning symbols for missing data and abbreviations. |