Context

At the 15th Conference of Parties (COP15) of the UNFCCC in Copenhagen in 2009, developed countries committed to a collective goal of mobilising USD 100 billion per year by 2020 for climate action in developing countries, in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation. The goal was formalised at COP16 in Cancun (UNFCCC, 2010[1]) and was reiterated for 2020 and extended to 2025 at COP21 in Paris (UNFCCC, 2015[2]).

At the request of developed countries, the OECD has, since 2015, produced analyses of progress towards this goal (OECD, 2021[3]). It was also asked in 2016 to produce forward-looking projection for the year 2020 (OECD, 2016[4]). These analyses are based on a robust accounting framework, consistent with the outcome of the COP24 agreed by all Parties to the Paris Agreement, as regards the funding sources and financial instruments to account for financial resources provided and mobilised through public interventions (UNFCCC, 2019[5]). OECD figures capture four distinct components of climate finance provided and mobilised by developed countries: bilateral public climate finance, multilateral public climate finance (attributed to developed countries), climate-related officially supported export credits, and private finance mobilised by bilateral and multilateral public climate finance (attributed to developed countries).

Due to time lags in official reporting, data for 2020, the initial target year for the goal, will not be available before 2022. The most recent historical OECD figures indicate that climate finance provided and mobilised by developed countries reached USD 79.6 billion in 2019, up by only 2% from 2018 (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Climate finance provided and mobilised by developed countries in 2016-19 (USD billion)

In this context, Canada and Germany have taken the lead, at the request of the incoming United Kingdom COP 26 Presidency and working with other developed countries, to develop a collective Delivery Plan to demonstrate how the USD 100 billion goal will be met. As input, the OECD was asked to conduct a supporting technical analysis of possible future levels of developed countries’ public climate finance. This analysis is based on forward-looking public climate finance information provided by individual developed countries and multilateral development banks (MDBs) for the specific purpose of this exercise, as further explained in the section on Data sources and assumptions. Building on this analysis of public climate finance, and further assumptions relating to future levels of export credits and mobilised private finance, this technical note presents two scenarios for climate finance provided and mobilised by developed countries, in order to provide an indication of the year in which the USD 100 billion goal could be met.

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