Chapter 2. Overview of the Turkish case study areas

To better understand the role of the local level in contributing to quality job creation, this study examines local activities in two provinces of Turkey: 1) Kocaeli; and 2) Trabzon. This chapter provides a labour market and economic overview of the provinces and their broader economic region. It also presents data and information on the supply and demand of skills at the sub-national level in Turkey

Overview

Turkey is divided into 12 regions, 26 (TL2) sub-regions and 81 (TL3) provinces (see Figure 2.1 below). In-depth fieldwork for this study was undertaken in the Turkish provinces of Kocaeli and Trabzon. These areas were selected after consultation between the OECD and İŞKUR. This chapter begins by giving a labour market and economic overview of the provinces. It concludes with the results of a tool developed by the OECD, which looks at the relationship between the supply and demand for skills at the sub-national level in Turkey.

East Marmara – North region and Kocaeli

The Kocaeli province is clustered together with Sakarya, Düzce, Bolu and Yalova under the Eastern Marmara-North sub-region (see Figure 2.1), characterised by a well-diversified economic structure and a strong manufacturing base. The broader East Marmara region (in which Kocaeli is located) in north-western Anatolia covers eight provinces and is a major hub of manufacturing activity and a leading region of origin for Turkish exports. The province of Kocaeli is home to a manufacturing industry that has grown rapidly over the past several decades (Kalkınma Bakanlığı, 2014).

The industrial base of the province allows for the production of a wide range of goods, including relatively high value-added products in the oil refinery and automobile industries. Enviably located between the major industrial centres of İstanbul, Sakarya, Adapazarı and Bursa, Kocaeli is the leading province in its sub-region in terms of the volume of economic activity and income levels. It is bordered by Marmara Sea on the East and the Black Sea on the North. With a population of about 1.7 million, it represented about 2.2% of the population of Turkey in 2014. Its central district is İzmit, a major industrial town itself and a leading export hub with modern port facilities located by the Gulf of İzmit. With annual exports exceeding USD 9 billion, Kocaeli comes second only to Istanbul, the country’s commercial and cultural centre.

Kocaeli also benefits from its proximity to the three largest metropolises in the country. This gives the province a crucial advantage in terms of access to major domestic markets. With more than 14 million inhabitants in 2015, İstanbul’s city centre is just an hour bus ride from İzmit, while Ankara and İzmir, whose population exceeded 5 million and 4 million respectively in 2015, are both less than 500 kilometres (300 miles) away.

The province has two well-established free trade zones (FTZ) and attracts substantial amounts of foreign direct investment, particularly through large scale automotive projects. Kocaeli is also home to the largest oil refinery in Turkey and 13 industrial zones scattered across the province offer the infrastructure needed for the production of a wide range of manufacturing products. Due to the intensity of manufacturing activity (especially in the Izmit and Gebze districts), per capita electricity consumption in Kocaeli is almost three times as high as the national average. Agricultural activity is relatively low with 85 000 hectares of land used in agriculture, which amounts to less than 18% of the region’s total (Turkstat, 2014a). As a result of the region’s industrial importance, Gross Value Added per capita is significantly higher than the country average (see Figure 2.3 below).

In terms of employment trends in the region, the labour force participation rate in Eastern Marmara – North was close to 55% in 2013, while the employment rate stood at around 49%. Between 2009 and 2013, the labour force participation rate rose by approximately eight percentage points and the employment rate increased by roughly nine percentage points, which are both positive signs for increasing the overall supply of people who are available to work in the labour market (See Figures 2.4 and 2.5).

At approximately 10%, the unemployment rate in Eastern Marmara – North sits around the national average in Turkey. Looking at historical trends, the unemployment rate in Eastern Marmara – North fell from 17% to nearly 10% from 2006-13. This recovery came after a sudden rise in unemployment between the years 2008 and 2009 caused by the Global Financial Crisis (Turkstat, 2014a). Due mostly to the sudden and substantial shrinkage of the European automotive market during the recession, Kocaeli was hit more severely than the rest of Turkey by the Global Financial Crisis (see Figure 2.6).

The Eastern Marmara – North region shows relatively fast demographic growth due not only to local fertility but also to immigration from other regions of the country. The incoming and outgoing migration rates were 2.97% and 2.05% respectively in 2014, implying a net inflow of people from other provinces. Migrants are mostly young people in search of employment opportunities and better living conditions. For instance, the largest share (16.5%) of migrants Kocaeli received between 2011 and 2012 were 20-24 year olds, followed by 25-29 year olds (15.3%). This contributes to the dynamism of the province’s labour market. Nonetheless, a closer look at outgoing migration hints at a net human resource loss due to internal migration, with a significant minority (18.9%) of the population seeking to settle outside the region between 2011 and 2012 being tertiary educated (MARKA, 2013). This indicates that retaining skilled labour is a challenge for Kocaeli.

East Black Sea region and Trabzon

The East Black Sea region is made up of eight provinces. Located in north-eastern Turkey, along the coastal line of the Black Sea, Trabzon is a province with a population of about 800 000, close to 1% of the country’s total population. Production activity in the Eastern Black Sea region is dominated by farming and animal husbandry. Sectoral diversification is limited, and the relatively small volume of manufacturing activity is concentrated on mostly low value-added products (DOKA, 2014a).1 Unlike the East Marmara – North region, annual value-added per person is significantly lower than the national average (see Figure 2.7).

There has been suggestions that Trabzon should be given a central role to drive larger regional development, based in part on the potential benefits that might be reaped from the revival of the province’s large seaport capacity and new business opportunities that were thought to arise following the establishment of the province’s free trade zone in 1992 (with a trade volume of about USD 120 million). Yet, the difficulty of land access and the associated costs of transportation have prevented a significant expansion of manufacturing activity to meet a larger share of domestic demand or visible increase in exports, which currently amount to about USD 1.3 billion.

Historically, national development plans in Turkey have paid special attention to the Eastern Black Sea region, and Trabzon has been identified as an area with the potential for stronger development. Although regional plans mention aspirations for developing high value-added activities, flagship sectors with strong R&D and IT infrastructure, the province has limited capacity to deliver results in line with these aspirations, except perhaps potential growth in the service economy and specifically tourism-related activities. Due also to lack of space for further expansion of industrial zones, manufacturing activity in Trabzon remains limited. Looking at the sectoral composition of employment in Trabzon, agriculture still plays a large role as a key sector, compared to the industry and services sector. From 2007-13, the services sector has increased in its overall share of employment (see Figure 2.8).

Looking at overall employment trends, the labour force participation rate in the East Black Sea was 50.3% in 2013 (see Figure 2.9). There has been a steady decline in the overall labour force participation rate, which is worrisome given that it means many workers have become inactive, lowering the overall supply available in the labour market. The region does slightly better than the national average in terms of the employment rate (46.6%) and visibly better in terms of the unemployment rate which sits at 7.4% compared to a national average of 9.6% in 2013. The East Black Sea region was also impacted by the Global Financial Crisis with a steady increase in unemployment in 2009.

The unemployment rate conceals the low productivity of people employed as unpaid family workers in the agricultural sector (Turkstat, 2014b). Many of the working age population tend to declare themselves as being in employment even though their employment opportunities are constrained to informal or seasonal jobs or follow irregular patterns in terms of wages earned and quality of work. The scale and nature of family-owned businesses in the province allow many low-productivity “family workers” to avoid actively looking for more formal types of jobs.

Geographical and topographic limitations for further expansion of agriculture in the province, coupled with this sector’s limited potential to generate significant welfare gains, have made the urban centre of Trabzon an attractive destination for the region’s rural residents who seek to improve their living standards. This explains the continuing process of urbanisation in Trabzon. In 2013, the incoming internal migration rate (1.18%) was similar to the outgoing internal migration rate of (1.11%), implying a net internal migration rate close to zero. This is a reflection of Trabzon’s so called “stepping stone” nature (DOKA, 2014a: 40), a term used to describe the province’s dual role both as a destination for domestic migrants from the rest of the region and a point of departure for emigrants moving to places in the rest of the country. Given the limited presence of manufacturing industry, migrants from within the region are absorbed in jobs offered by the service sector that tend to require low-to-medium level of skills.

Local labour markets and employment characteristics

Kocaeli and Trabzon are two provinces with different economic structures and employment characteristics. The working age population in Kocaeli is larger and growing at a faster pace in comparison to Trabzon (see Figure 2.12). The two provinces together make up about 3% of Turkey’s working age population, which continues to grow both in size and in terms of its share of the total Turkish population.

Kocaeli benefits from its status as the hinterland of İstanbul and serves as a hub integrating different manufacturing activities, particularly those producing medium technology products (T.C. Kalkınma Bakanlığı, 2014). As such, Kocaeli’s employment structure is characterised by a mix of white and blue collar jobs offered by manufacturing and service industries. Although manufacturing and the service sector remain leading employers, signs of growth in agricultural sector employment have been visible in recent years (Turkstat, 2013).

The highest share of employment in Trabzon is also in the services sector. However, unlike Kocaeli, Trabzon has a relatively low share of employment in the manufacturing industry. The province is the export hub of the region, with farming and animal husbandry accounting for far the largest share of the province’s exports (69%) (DOKA, 2014a). While Trabzon is the main port for exports of agriculture-based products, Rize and Ordu are the main regional centres of agricultural production. This sector’s impact on employment cannot be fully accounted for due to the seasonal and undeclared nature of employment in agricultural activities in Turkey.

Manufacturing employment is provided mostly by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that typically produce low-tech to medium-low tech products such as processed food and textiles. As such, local labour markets are mostly driven by low- to medium-skilled job dynamics. Still, compared to the other provinces in its region, Trabzon provides more and a wider range of opportunities for employment. The intensifying need to meet the demands of a growing population and the geographical limitations to agriculture have prompted internal migration from rural parts of Trabzon to the main urban centre of the province, posing particular challenges linked to urbanisation of the city.

Development plans have so far focused on turning the province into a regional hub in a limited number of activities. Therefore, Trabzon’s growth strategy as envisaged by DOKAP, the main regional development plan, and in similar plans drafted by the regional development agency, is actively tilting towards construction and tourism and hospitality activities (İŞKUR, 2014b)2. Thanks to investments, the share of employment in services is on the rise. Employment growth in the service industries can partly be explained by the emergence of the potential of relatively untapped tourism and real estate development sectors, due particularly to demand coming from the neighbouring countries and the Gulf countries of the Arab world.

Impact of the economic climate and employment policies

As explained in the previous chapter, Turkey enjoyed rapid growth rates in the aftermath of the 2001 crisis until the global economic crisis. Following a strong recovery in 2010 and 2011, the Turkish economy grew at an average rate of 6.1% annually between 2012 and 2014. Employment grew at an average rate of 3.8% annually between 2009 and 2015, and more than five million new jobs were created during this period (OECD, 2015).

Despite such positive developments, the movement of labour between non-agricultural sectors has not always been from poorly productive, low-tech sectors towards sectors with higher productivity. This means that Turkey is moving only slowly in a growth-enhancing direction (World Bank, 2013). One of the main underlying reasons for this was the strategic switch of Turkish exports away from shrinking European (and to some extent North American) markets and towards Middle Eastern markets at the onset of the global recession. In particular, the near collapse of the European automobile market in 2009 strongly affected Kocaeli and surrounding provinces, like Bursa and Sakarya. While switching focus towards Middle Eastern markets may have provided some relief to export sectors, the types and qualities of products demanded by the markets were radically different.

After discovering untapped sections of Middle Eastern markets with lower standards for imported products, some Turkish exporters tended to move towards the production of simpler, less sophisticated and relatively lower-quality products. Consequently, the global recession not only changed the composition of export markets and hence Turkish production, but also had significant and lasting implications on the nature of demand for labour (and skills) in the Turkish manufacturing sector. How such developments manifested themselves in local economies can be analysed in terms of overall employment policies, the role of regional actors in providing employment services and the education levels of Kocaeli and Trabzon.

In Kocaeli, in line with the nature of economic activities in the region, the employment share of manufacturing remained largely constant between 2008 and 2012 (34.1% on average). While the service sector experienced a decline in its employment share from 47.7% to 44.5% over the same period, it remained the leading employer. In terms of productivity, the regional gross value-added per person (output based calculation) was about USD 13 100 as of 2011 – significantly higher than the national average of USD 9 200 for the same year. In terms of total value-added, the region has contributed about 6% of the total regional value-added in Turkey between 2007 and 2011. The largest contributor to regional output was the service sector, which produced 57.1% of the regional value-added per person in 2011 (Turkstat, 2014a). As expected, productivity of the service sector is higher than average, as reflected by its much lower employment share – which stood at 44.3% the same year.

The sectoral distribution of economic activities and employment in the region was also discussed in the regional development plan (2014-23) prepared by the East Marmara Regional Development Agency (MARKA). The plan emphasises the need for specialisation and suggests selecting the priority sectors to develop in the region based on four criteria: investment intensity, employment volume, export volume, and value-added generated. Specific employment policies with regards to the leading sectors are spelled out in the plan within the context of human capital development. When looked at from such a perspective, basic employment indicators, while remaining above national averages, lag behind the EU27 averages (MARKA, 2014). The plan, therefore, envisions raising education and skills levels of the population in order to increase both the productivity of the workforce and employment levels. Within this context, it highlights collaboration between different vocational education and training (VET) actors as a critical success factor to improving skills.

Despite this emphasis on VET as a channel for strengthening labour markets, no sector-specific policies have been suggested in the regional plan. Filling the types of vacant jobs typically offered in the province requires people who have acquired adequate vocational skills through education and work experience (MARKA, 2014). In Kocaeli, vacant jobs for which workforce recruitment is particularly difficult are concentrated mostly in the manufacturing sector (İŞKUR, 2014a). Hence, aligning vocational education and training with the needs of the local labour market and taking steps towards increasing the popularity of this type of education are identified by the plan as key skills development areas. However, specific or concrete actions are not outlined beyond pointing to the need to track regional labour market trends and developing relevant strategies to improve VET.

For Trabzon, the employment outlook is difficult to map out since no data on sectoral and occupational distribution of employment at the provincial level are available. It is imperative to analyse the region first to identify key economic trends. The 2007-13 averages of the employment shares in manufacturing and services were 13.3% and 34.4%, respectively. At 47.1% in 2013, agriculture had a higher average share of employment both the manufacturing and services sectors. Manufacturing activity in the region is mostly focused on food processing (DOKA, 2014a). This economic structure produced a per capita gross value-added figure of about USD 6 600 in 2011, well below the national average of USD 9 200, placing the region in the 17th out of the 26 regions in Turkey (Turkstat, 2014b). The regional output share was slightly higher than the national average in agriculture (12.7% compared to 9.0%), slightly lower in the manufacturing industry (23.1% versus 27.5%) and slightly higher in services (64.2% versus 63.5%), according to Turkstat figures. Trabzon itself is also a largely service economy due mainly to topographic and geographic conditions that provide limited room for agricultural development and manufacturing. As a result, the town has a mostly service-oriented labour market, though the service industry is probably not as sophisticated as it is in Kocaeli.

The regional plan of the East Black Sea Development Agency (DOKA) identifies various problems preventing increases in employment, varying from limitations of human capital to geography. However, the plan does not elaborate any specific strategies. One notable exception is the detailed analysis of tourism activities in the region where Trabzon is located (DOKA, 2014a). Another sector-specific report prepared by the agency (DOKA, 2014b) assesses the potential developmental contribution of tourist inflow from the Arab world, particularly the Gulf area, and urges local authorities to develop policies by placing Trabzon at the heart of such efforts. While neither their employment-boosting effects nor skills shortages are satisfactorily discussed in the report, tourism related activities are regarded as key to the income generation potential of Trabzon’s economy and subsequent development.

Regional actors have limited opportunities to contribute to the process of drafting and implementing region- or province-specific employment policies and concrete action plans. The highly centralised structure of the Turkish administrative system, lack of inter-agency co-ordination, and significant discrepancies in the delivery capacity of central and local agents often hinder the local formulation and implementation of major employment initiatives. As is the case with regional development agencies, the responsibility for devising sectoral policies for local development and employment generation at the local level is often the responsibility of central government. Such policies are expected to be designed at the national level and implemented through provincial representatives of ministries and other state agencies.

Education and training

Education levels in Kocaeli and Trabzon vary considerably. Although the net schooling rates for primary and secondary level education do not differ greatly, there are visible differences between vocational and tertiary education rates. The importance of upper secondary and tertiary education for the labour market is multi-fold, with effects on labour force participation, unemployment rates and wages. OECD data shows, for instance, that on average, over 80% of tertiary-educated people in the OECD countries are employed, in contrast to around 70% of people with an upper secondary or post-secondary non-tertiary education.

The data also reveals that unemployment rates tend to be lower among individuals with vocational upper secondary or post-secondary non-tertiary education (8%) than among adults with a general upper secondary education (9%). As for the difference in wages earned, the Turkish case is a stark example, as the country has one of the highest earnings premiums for upper secondary and tertiary education. In 2013, adults with tertiary degrees earned 88% more on average than adults with upper secondary education, while this premium was on average 60% in the OECD as a whole (OECD, 2015). Yet, the size of the group collecting wage premiums on tertiary education relative to the total adult population is not as large in Turkey as it is in the OECD.

As for the relative educational standing of the provinces of Kocaeli and Trabzon within Turkey, basic education indicators do not show significant discrepancies. Both provinces perform well and surpass national averages in schooling and literacy rates (6 years and over). The net schooling rate for primary education (2013-2014) was 99.7% in both Kocaeli and Trabzon, which is slightly higher than the national average (99.6%). In 2013, Kocaeli (97.2%) performed better than Trabzon (94.9%) in terms of the literacy rate (Turkstat, 2014b).

A different outlook emerges when looking at the number of student enrolled in tertiary or higher degree programmes (see Figure 2.11), where Kocaeli has a much larger number of students enrolled compared to Trabzon. Looking more specifically at VET resources, Kocaeli had more schools (166), teachers (3 603), and students (65 302) in 2013-14 than Trabzon: 94, 2 108, and 29 334 respectively (Turkstat, 2014a and 2014b). These numbers alone do not signal the importance attributed to VET, given the differences in terms of demography and the structure of local economies in these two provinces.

Kocaeli hosts 2% of all graduates of tertiary education institutions in Turkey, while Trabzon hosts 1.5%. Both provinces have universities with a large numbers of students. While the major state university, Kocaeli University (KU) has over 75 000 students, only a fraction (approximately 9 000) are residents in the province. The university’s vocational schools have 21 different departments in which more than 4 000 students are enrolled. The province also hosts Gebze Higher Technology Institute (GYTE), which specialises in research and technology production and featured over 2 000 students in bachelor’s degree programmes as of 2013-14 (Kocaeli Ticaret Odası, 2014). Adding to Kocaeli’s technical and vocational capabilities at the tertiary education level, there are two technology parks, creating an eco-system along with the organised industry zones.

Trabzon’s state university is a technical university, where more students are enrolled in engineering and science programmes than in humanities and social sciences. Due to insufficient investment in technological infrastructure and to the weakness of the local industry, the education provided falls short of making a marked contribution to the skills levels in the local labour market, as noted in the regional development plan (DOKAP).

There is significant variation in participation and graduation rates for the vocational training courses provided within the scope of İŞKUR’s active labour market programmes. İŞKUR’s courses are classified as training courses with employment guarantees and general workforce development courses. Over the period between 2009 and 2013, a total of 62 employment guaranteed courses were opened in Kocaeli with 1 503 participants. During the same time period, nearly 13 000 participants were trained in 573 general employment courses. In addition, a total of 3 864 apprentices/apprenticeship trainees and 403 senior apprentices completed their education between 2013 and 2014 through Vocational Training Centres under the direction of the province’s governorship and district administrations (İŞKUR, 2014a). In Trabzon, 835 participants were enrolled in 48 employment guaranteed courses during the period 2009-13, and there were an additional 254 general employment courses with 4 334 participants (İŞKUR, 2014b).

The gap between Kocaeli and Trabzon is even more evident in terms of UMEM courses (for the five-year period following the project’s inception). In Kocaeli, 7 166 students began to receive theoretical training (out of a quota of 8,421 set for student take-in for these courses), and 5 459 successfully graduated. In Trabzon, on the other hand, 1 002 students began to receive theoretical training (out of the student take-in quota of 1 142) with 676 successfully graduating (UMEM, 2015). The two provinces were also different in terms of the interest shown for these courses. In 2013, there were 47 UMEM courses opened with only 290 participants (Turkstat, 2014b) in Trabzon, whereas the numbers for the same year in Kocaeli were 216 UMEM courses with 3605 participants (Turkstat, 2014a).

Mapping skills supply and demand in Turkey

To supplement the analysis above, the OECD has developed a statistical tool to understand the balance between skills supply and demand within local labour markets (Froy, Giguère and Meghnagi, 2012). In the Turkish context, this tool can supplement the previous analysis to provide policy makers with an understanding of potential skills mismatches that may be occurring at the sub-national level. It can also inform place-based policy approaches at the local level.

Looking at the figure above, in the top-left corner (skills gaps and shortages), demand for high skills is met by a supply of low skills, a situation that results in reported skills gaps and shortages. In the top-right corner, demand for high skills is met by an equal supply of high skills, resulting in a high-skills equilibrium. This is the most desired destination for all high-performing local economies. At the bottom-left corner the demand for low skills is met by a supply of low skills resulting in a low-skills equilibrium. The challenge that policymakers face is to get the economy moving in a north-easterly direction towards the top-right corner. Lastly, in the bottom-right corner, demand for low skills is met by a supply of high skills resulting in an economy where the skills capacity available is not utilised. This leads to the outmigration of talent, underemployment, skills under-utilisation and the attrition of human capital, all of which signal missed opportunities for creating prosperity.

Box 2.1. Explaining the diagnostic tool

The analysis is carried out at Territorial Level 3 regions (regions with populations ranging between 150 000 and 800 000). The supply of skills was measured by the percentage of the population with post-secondary education. The demand for skills was measured by the percentage of the population employed in medium-high skilled occupations and its productivity level (GVA per worker). Regions are also classified in relation to the average state unemployment rate. The indices are standardised using the inter-decile method and are compared with the national median. Further explanations on the methodology can be found in Froy, Giguère and Meghnagi, 2012.

Source: Froy, F., S. Giguère and M. Meghnagi (2012), “Skills for Competitiveness: A Synthesis Report”, OECD Local Economic and Employment Development (LEED) Working Papers, No. 2012/09, OECD Publishing, https://doi.org/10.1787/5k98xwskmvr6-en.

This typology has been applied to sub-regions in Turkey (see Figure 2.14). The map shows where conditions are ripe for quality job creation due to the presence of both high skills supply and demand in Turkey’s 26 regions. There is a significant divergence between the Western and the Central-Eastern parts of the country. The area between Istanbul and Ankara and the area near the Mediterranean and the Aegean are mostly in a “high-skills equilibrium”, where a high supply of skills (percentage of people with post-secondary education) is matched by a high skills demand (the percentage of medium and high skills occupations and GVA per worker). Adana, Malatya and Erzurum are in a skills surplus (where skills supply exceeds demand) and Zonguldak in a skills deficit (where skills demand exceeds supply). The remaining regions are in “low-skills equilibrium” (where a low supply of skills is matched by low demand).

References

Froy, F. and S. Giguère (2010), "Putting in Place Jobs that Last: A Guide to Rebuilding Quality Employment at Local Level", OECD Local Economic and Employment Development (LEED) Working Papers, No. 2010/13, OECD Publishing, https://doi.org/10.1787/5km7jf7qtk9p-en.

Froy, F., S. Giguère and M. Meghnagi (2012), "Skills for Competitiveness: A Synthesis Report", OECD Local Economic and Employment Development (LEED) Working Papers, No. 2012/09, OECD Publishing, https://doi.org/10.1787/5k98xwskmvr6-en.

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ISKUR (2014a), Kocaeli 2014 İşgücü Piyasası Araştırma Raporu, Kocaeli Çalışma ve İş Kurumu İl Müdürlüğü.

İŞKUR (2014b), Trabzon 2014 İşgücü Piyasası Araştırma Raporu, Trabzon Çalışma ve İş Kurumu İl Müdürlüğü.

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Turkstat (2014b), Seçilmiş Göstergelerle Trabzon 2013, Ankara: Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu.

Turkstat (2013), Regional Directorate Statistics, Kocaeli, Kocaeli: Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu Kocaeli İl Müdürlüğü.

Notes

← 1. Main industry branches in the region are food, wood products, non-metal furniture products and medical devices. Product diversification in the region followed a declining trend between 2003 and 2009 as noted in Kalkınma Bakanlığı (2014).

← 2. By İŞKUR’s Trabzon Labour Market Demand Survey, out of 2 143 firms contacted, 574 operate in the construction sector.