Chapter 1. Foreign direct investment performance and Kazakhstan’s economic development
In the light of the current global economic slowdown and stagnating commodity prices, attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) has proven increasingly difficult in Kazakhstan. FDI inflows have declined, on average, by 15% since 2011, and 52% in 2015 (reaching USD 4 billion in 2015). This marks a significant decrease compared to the average of USD 10 billion in annual FDI inflows over the past decade. Still, being a small and remote economy, Kazakhstan has performed well in overall FDI attraction relative to the region, with the share of its inward FDI stock to GDP (of USD 119.8 billion or 55%) being higher than in most neighbouring countries. The principal challenge remains to attract investment into sectors and activities other than natural resource extraction, which accounts for more than 70% of total FDI stock, as well as retain investors already present in the economy.
Ever since its independence Kazakhstan has undertaken a series of reforms aiming at opening of its economy and modernising its productive structure. As captured in the early OECD Investment Guide to Kazakhstan (OECD, 1998), the country underwent a series of privatizations, introduced significant legal changes to its regulatory regime, and stabilized its macroeconomic situation throughout the 1990s. After a period of adjustment and economic contraction in the 1990s, the country, aided by buoyant oil prices, stable political environment and continuous reform, experienced a strong economic growth throughout 2000s, the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis notwithstanding (Figure 1.1).
Source: International Energy Agency; World Bank’s World Development Indicators.
The role of the foreign direct investment (FDI) in the economy has also increased over time (Figure 1.2). The share of inward FDI flows in total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and inward FDI stock in gross domestic product (GDP) increased more than ten- and twentyfold, respectively, since early 1990s (currently, remaining at 59% and 32%, respectively). These shares remain higher than in many other economies in the region, even though this partially reflects the small size of Kazakhstan’s economy. As testified by the Investment Policy Review of Kazakhstan (OECD, 2012), the country has also undertaken a series of important reforms aiming to improve its investment climate, and has successfully concluded its accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO), described in more detail in Chapter 6.
Source: World Development Indicators and UNCTAD.
Still, given a current slowdown in the global oil prices and a sharp decrease in household spending following strong depreciation of the tenge (KZT), the government has been under increasing pressure to undertake further reforms that help boost growth and diversify its economy, including through stronger attraction of FDI. The oil and gas sector is estimated to account for around 16% of value-added, 30% of GDP, almost a third of budget revenues and two-thirds of exports (OECD, 2016a: 87) (Figures 1.3- 1.4).1 The stability of these metrics over time indicates that, despite economic diversification being the government’s announced policy priority, Kazakhstan has struggled to significantly alter its economic base and facilitate the growth of non-traditional sectors. The number of export products and markets in Kazakhstan had not changed much since early 2000s, and remains much lower than in other Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries (Figure 1.A1.1 in Annex 1.A1). As will be explained in Chapters 5 and 6, remaining business climate issues, relative remoteness and limited connectivity with foreign markets, weak competition in certain sectors as well as lack of effective FDI attraction policy may be among the contributing factors.
Source: Committee on Statistics, www.stat.gov.kz.
Source: UN COMTRADE database.
This chapter presents the recent trends in FDI in Kazakhstan, including dominant sources and sectors for investment to provide an overview of the current role of FDI in the Kazakh economy.
Recent FDI trends
Over the past ten years, FDI inflows have shown a strong cyclicality, reaching peaks in 2008 (of USD 14.3 billion) and 2011-12 (USD 14 billion) (Figure 1.5). After a fall in 2010, FDI has recuperated in 2011-12. Since then, however, FDI inflows in Kazakhstan have fallen sharply, primarily due to the reduced profitability of the domestic oil sector at lower oil prices but also reduced liquidity of firms in other sectors in the aftermath of the crisis. For example, in banking there have been departures of several large global players (see Box 1.1). Meanwhile, the outward FDI flows have remaining relatively flat, averaging USD 2.6 billion per year over the period 2005-15. The inward FDI stock in Kazakhstan has reached USD 119.8 billion (55% of GDP) and outward FDI stock USD 23.9 billion in 2015 (about one fifth of the inward stock or 11% of GDP). Kazakhstan is hence sustaining a net negative FDI position with annual FDI inflows outweighing outflows over the past ten years. The gap has narrowed in recent years with a relatively sharper decrease in FDI inflows than outflows in 2012-15.
Note: National Bank of Kazakhstan publishes FDI statistics according to the directional principle with a breakdown to countries and types of economic activities of the residents at http://nationalbank.kz.
Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan.
Several global banks have divested their operations in Kazakhstan, partially or fully, in recent years (Table 1.1). Among the more notably ones was the exit from the country of UniCredit in 2013, HSBC in 2014, and RBS in 2015. In all cases, the assets were bought by Kazakh investors (see below). Foreign firms remain to be present in the sector though, with 16 out of all 35 banks having some foreign participation in 2015, including 13 subsidiary banks (see below).
The reasons for the divestures of the foreign firms in the sector have been diverse but according to the official announcements appear to be driven by the long-term MNE strategies of focusing on the core markets of their operations and divesting peripheral assets. For example, the UniCredit’s decision to close its operations in the country appears to be an outcome of strategic considerations embodied in its five-year plan which include a greater focus on core markets in Eastern Europe, notably Poland. Already in 2011, the group announced that it would be willing to sell Kazakh JSC ATFBank at an appropriate price, and completed the deal with a Kazakh investor, KazNitrogenGaz LLP, in March 2013. UniCredit’s Bank Austria, bought ATF (the fifth-largest Kazakh lender) for USD 2.1 billion in 2007. Similarly, the withdrawal of RBS appears to have to have been outlined in its strategic orientations at the MNE headquarter level.
Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan.
In order to ensure that these and other divestments are not caused by weaknesses of business climate and to help retain investments, the government should consider engaging in dialogue with investors that either already divested or announced future divestments on the underlying causes.
Source: UniCredit, Bloomberg, Reuters, National Bank of Kazakhstan, Dealogic.
The trend in declining FDI flows in recent years has been reflected both the declining shares of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in Kazakhstan, whereby domestic M&A deals have played an increasingly more important role, as well as reduced greenfield FDI performance (Figures 1.6- 1.7). Still, inward FDI flows continue to play a larger role in the Kazakh economy than they do in other CIS countries (Figure 1.A1.3 in Annex 1.A1) and, thus far, remain positive, which means that net divestment is not observed. The value of investments by foreign firms via M&A also outweighs the value of foreign M&A divestures (Figure 1.A1.4 in Annex 1.A1). According to the Kazakhstan’s national statistical office, as of today, foreign enterprises operating in the country account for 61% of industrial output, 66.2% of total exports, and 5.4% of total employment.
Note: Deals are identified as cross border when the target and the acquirer are of different nationality.
Source: OECD calculations using Dealogic M&A data.
Note: The Index is calculated as a share of country’s GDP in the world’s GDP divided by the country’s share in the world’s announced greenfield FDI (normalised around 0). A value > 0 means that a country attracts more FDI than predicted by the size of its GDP.
Source: OECD calculations based on World Bank’s World Development Indicators and UNCTAD’s World Investment Report.
FDI by sector
With its large oil and mineral deposits (IEA, 2015), Kazakhstan has historically attracted significant amounts of FDI into its oil and gas sector. Already in the early stages of its independence in 1990s, the sector attracted foreign entrants, including Chevron, Lukoil, Texaco and Canadian Hurricane Hydrocarbons Ltd (Peck, 2002). Today, geological exploration and prospecting activities account for 53% of inward FDI stock, i.e. 72 billion USD (Figure 1.8), followed by mining and quarrying (19%). Most of global market players in the sector are present in Kazakhstan, including Chevron, BP, Exxon, Royal Dutch Shell, and Total, and foreign-owned firms, including joint ventures, dominate the sector.2 The high concentration of FDI in extractives sector also influences the country’s trade structure, whereby the country exports primarily fuel to the EU (about 40 billion USD annually) and imports machinery and equipment from the EU (for the use in extractives) as well as refined oil from CIS countries (Figures 1.A1.6 and 1.A1.7 in Annex 1.A1). Kazakhstan still records some FDI in its manufacturing sector (10%), the majority of which is directed at the basic and fabricated metal products sector (84%), followed by food products and tobacco (7%). Most recently, the FDI inflows into the oil and the associated architectural, engineering and technical services sectors have shrunk, reflecting the economic difficulties related to lower oil prices (Figure 1.9). The cross-border M&A activity in the oil and gas sectoralso declined (from 74% in 1996-2001 to 50% in 2008-15), but jointly with mining still accounts for over two thirds of total M&A deal value in the country (Figure 1.A1.5 in the Annex to this chapter).
Note: Data as of as of 30/06/2015.
Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan.
Source: UNCTAD, National Bank of Kazakhstan.
FDI by country of origin
According to Kazakhstan’s FDI statistics, the EU is by far the most important foreign investor in Kazakhstan, followed by the United States, Japan, the People’s Republic of China (China), and Russia (Table 1.1). It is worth noting, however, that the Netherlands, a country with significant share of resident special purpose entities (SPEs), accounts for a lion’s share of both Kazakhstan’s inward and outward FDI. This phenomenon reflects the growing difficulty of capturing accurately the true origin of investment, which is channelled increasingly through holding companies and other corporate structures used for purposes of tax or other reasons (OEDC, 2015). An increasing number of countries, including Netherlands, report their FDI statistics with a breakdown of investment undertaken by resident SPEs and non-SPEs (see Box 1.2 for more detail). The OECD home-country FDI statistics confirm that nearly 80% of inward FDI from the Netherlands in Kazakhstan comes from resident SPEs (Table 1.A1.1 in the Annex). Most of Kazakhstan’s outward FDI is located in resident SPEs as well, as discussed next. This highlights the importance of improving the methodology for compiling domestic FDI statistics to discern better the true origin and destination of investment as well as suggests that some of the inward FDI in Kazakhstan may in fact be domestic investment channelled through holding companies located abroad, and vice-versa, complicating the understanding of the underlying investment trends.
Special purpose entities (SPEs) also called shell or shelf companies are companies that do not have substantial economic activity in the country but are used by companies as devices to raise capital or to hold assets and liabilities. With the proliferation of international activities and increase in intra-frim trade, including in intangibles, it has become increasingly easy for companies to shift profits across jurisdictions according to the most favourable tax environment through corporate structures built for that purpose. Just as gross trade flows may obscure the destination and origin of value-added produced in a given economy due to multiple shipments of goods across borders during the production process that spans several countries, so the passing of funds through SPEs can lead to the inflation of FDI statistics and the obscuring of the ultimate source and destination of FDI.
The OECD Revised Benchmark Definition of Foreign Direct Investment (BMD4) recommends that countries compile their FDI statistics excluding resident SPEs, and, then, separately for resident SPEs to provide a more meaningful measure of direct investment into and out of an economy. For the country hosting the SPEs, this recommendation improves the measurement of FDI by excluding inward FDI that has little or no real impact on their economies and by excluding outward FDI that did not originate from their economies. Four countries – Austria, Hungary, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands – have reported FDI flows and positions excluding resident SPEs to the OECD for several years. With the implementation of the latest standards, 9 additional countries – including Chile and eight other countries3 – have now reported data excluding resident SPEs. Inward investment positions are the value of the accumulated stock of foreign investment in a host country. Figure 1.1 shows the percentage of inward positions accounted for by resident SPEs in 2013. The countries are displayed according to share of investment accounted for by resident SPEs.
Source: OECD International Direct Investment statistics and IMF.
Even in countries where SPEs do not play a significant role in FDI currently, it is useful to be able to identify resident SPEs in the statistics so that their role in FDI can be monitored. By their nature, SPEs can be formed easily and can grow rapidly. In addition, SPEs can have large transactions in a particular period that can distort FDI flows due to their role within the MNE of providing financing or holding assets and liabilities. By compiling FDI statistics that exclude resident SPEs, FDI statistics are not overstated by including funds that are simply being channelled through the SPEs, are easier to interpret for policy-making and other purposes, and provide a better measure of FDI that is likely to have an economic impact in the host economy.
Source: OECD. For more information, see the OECD website on International Investment Statistics: www.oecd. org/daf/inv/investment-policy/oecdimplementsnewinternationalstandardsforcompilingfdistatistics.htm
Other sources of information provide additional insights on the activity of foreign firms in Kazakhstan. For example, information on the operations of foreign affiliates of multinational firms4 suggest that the largest number of foreign affiliates operating in Kazakhstan stem from the United States (22%), followed by Germany (16%) and the United Kingdom (12%). These companies include many of the Global Fortune 500 and other large TNCs.5 According to merger and acquisitions (M&A) data, in turn, foreign investors from the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States have engaged in the largest number of cross-border M&A deals in Kazakhstan in the past fifteen years; while investors from China, the Russian Federation and the United Kingdom have been most important in terms of the total registered deal value (Figure 1.10).
Note: Acquirer nationality is defined to mean the country where the acquirer is either headquartered or has the majority of its managerial operations in.
Source: OECD calculations using Dealogic M&A data.
Outward investment
As mentioned earlier, the investments of foreign companies in Kazakhstan outweigh the investments of Kazakh companies abroad. Outward FDI stock (of USD 26.1 billion in 2015) accounts for 12% of GDP, and outward FDI flows (of USD 2 billion in 2015) for 2% of GDP. Also, most of Kazakh outward FDI is directed into head offices and management consulting services (Figure 1.11), which suggests that some of that investment may be investment round-tripping for tax or other purposes. Kazakhstan’s outward FDI stock may hence be even lower than suggested by the official statistics. Nevertheless, there are examples of several active investment projects by Kazakh enterprises abroad, including investments by state oil company KazMunayGas in the Rompetrol Group refinery in Romania worth USD 3.8 billion6 and smaller investments by trade companies, banks, and other financial institutions in the Russian Federation, Turkey, the Kyrgyz Republic, and other countries (Eurasian Development Bank, 2013; Asian Development Bank Institute, 2014).
Note: Data as of 30/06/2015.
Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan.
FDI has played an important role in Kazakhstan’s modern history, accounting for about 50% of the country’s GDP throughout the 2000s. Some Kazakh companies, in particular state-owned enterprises (SOEs), are also active abroad. Most recently, Kazakhstan has encountered some difficulties in attracting FDI, primarily due to lower global commodity prices as well as consequences of the global financial crisis. In some sectors, in particular in banking, there have been departures of several large global players. Still, on average, foreign firms invest more than they divest in Kazakhstan (i.e. the net investment-divestment ratio remains positive), and, according to business surveys, the country remains an attractive place to invest in the region (EY, 2016). While reasons behind firms’ investment and divestment decisions are often diverse and may lie outside of the scope of policy action, the strength of the local business climate and proactive investment attraction policy can be important factors. The following chapters discuss different aspects of investment climate in Kazakhstan and consider how the country could improve its policy framework for investment to retain and attract FDI, including in non-traditional sectors.
References
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Dealogic, Merger and Acquisitions (M&A) Analytics database.
Economist Intelligence Unit EUI (2016), Country Report: Kazakhstan, April 2016.
Eurasian Development Bank (2013), Monitoring of Direct Investments of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine in Eurasia, Centre for Integration Studies, Report No. 19.
Foreign Direct Investment statistics, National Bank of Kazakhstan, www.nationalbank.kz.
International Trade Centre (ICT), Investment Map database, www.investmentmap.org.
International Energy Agency-IEA (2015), Oil Information 2015, IEA statistics.
OECD (1998), Investment Guide for Kazakhstan, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264163546-en.
OECD (2012), Investment Policy Reviews: Kazakhstan 2012, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264121812-en.
OECD (2015), How Multinational Enterprises Channel Investments through Multiple Countries, www.oecd.org/daf/inv/How-MNEs-channel-investments.pdf.
OECD Foreign Direct Investment Statistics database, www.oecd.org/investment/statistics. htm.
OECD (2009), Revised Benchmark Definition of Foreign Direct Investment – Fourth Edition, OECD publishing https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264045743-en.
Peck, A. (2002), “Industrial Privatization in Kazakhstan: The Results of Government Sales of the Principal Enterprises to Foreign Investors”, Taylor & Francis, Ltd. Russian & East European Finance and Trade, Vol. 38, No. 1 pp. 31-58.
UNCTAD (2015), World Investment Report, UNCTAD: Geneva.
Source: WITS database.
Note: Greenfield FDI refers to cross-border investment in a new physical project or expansion of an existing investment which creates new jobs and capital investment, as identified in the FDI markets database of the Financial Times used in the UNCTAD Investment Report. Projects that are below the 10% foreign ownership threshold applied in the official definitions of FDI may also be included.
Source: OECD calculations based on the Word Bank’s World Development Indicators and UNCTAD’s World Investment Report.
Source: World Development Indicators and UNCTAD.
Source: OECD calculations using Dealogic M&A data.
Source: OECD calculations using Dealogic M&A data.
Source: UN COMTRADE.
Source: UN COMTRADE.
Notes
← 1. The data on value added presented here have been provided by the government. The integration of Kazakhstan into the OECD’s statistical systems, including the OECD National Accounts data and Trade in Value Added database would help ensure that the country’s national statistics are consistent with those of other countries. Kazakhstan is currently being integrated into the OECD Trade in Value Added database, and the results should become publically available at the time of the next release of the database in 2017.
← 2. According to the Statistical Office of Kazakhstan, joint ventures accounted for 83% of all firms operating in the sector in 2012.
← 3. Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom.
← 4. Information comes from the Investment Map database maintained by the International Trade Center (ITC). The Investment Map database integrates FDI databases developed by UNCTAD, the UN trade database (COMTRADE), tariff databases developed by ITC, and company databases maintained by Dun & Bradstreet. For more information, please see: www.investmentmap.org/datasource_limit.aspx.
← 5. These include, among others, Intel, Microsoft, Procter and Gamble from the United States; Siemens, Deutsche Post and Deutsche Bank from Germany; Royal Dutch Shell PLC, BP PLC; Toyota from Japan; or PSA Peugeot Citroën and Danone from France. Information based on the Investment Map available on the website of the International Trade Center (www.investmentmap.org) and embassies of the OECD countries.
← 6. Information provided by the Government of Kazakhstan.