Analytical basis for the transitory food insecurity framework

This chapter presents the theoretical basis for analysing the stability dimension of food security at government level. First, the target variables defining food security are identified using the distribution of individuals or households. The food-insecure segment of the population is defined as those below a given threshold, and the instability of food security is analysed based on the distribution of prevalence of food security across different scenarios and risks. Second, the type of information required to define a scenario is discussed using stylised examples. The risk assessment process should lead to estimates of the likelihood of the threat and its impact on the prevalence of food security. Finally, a portfolio approach to policy decisions is explained with stylised examples. As part of the process, the effectiveness and efficiency of different policy measures in different scenarios need to be analysed and reconciled with the government’s attitude towards avoiding the risk of lower food security in different scenarios.