The impact of the CAP on regional employment: a multi-modelling cross-country approach

The research reported in this chapter refers to five European Union (EU) selected regions (Emilia Romagna, Italy East Wales, United Kingdom Anatoliki Makedonia and Thraki, Greece Östergötland, Sweden and Kassel, Germany) to identify and measure the Common Agricultural Policy’s (CAP) effects on employment throughout regional economies. It accounts for agricultural and non-agricultural effects, and covers the diversity of EU rural regions. A framework of three different approaches was developed and then applied to these five regions in order to trace out the current and anticipated employment effects of Pillars 1 and 2 changes. The focus of this work is to consolidate the conclusions derived from the different models applied in order to deduce valuable policy generalizations and to derive conclusions which may guide policymakers in making decisions related to regional and rural development. The results demonstrate that CAP funding, particularly for Pillar 2, contributes to the maintenance of employment in the farming sector but also in the non-farming sector, thus serving as a permanent regional “stimulus” package.