1. The future of triangular co-operation
This chapter outlines opportunities and challenges for triangular co-operation, using foresight tools to explore four very different scenarios for global geopolitical relations, sustainable development and development co-operation. It then discusses the value added of triangular co-operation as a means of technical diplomacy, and how it can best contribute to a post-2030 development co-operation agenda.
Today’s times are turbulent with multiple, interlinked and complex crises and challenges that transcend borders and require global solutions. Climate change poses an existential risk and threatens the development progress of recent decades, particularly for the poorest countries (OECD, 2023[1]). The COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing wars and conflicts, including in Ukraine, have not only had devastating short-term consequences but have also accentuated longer-term economic and geopolitical shifts.
The tectonic plates of great power politics have shifted considerably over the last three decades. After a period of unipolarity following the fall of the Soviet Union, the (re-)emergence of China, India and other countries as important geopolitical players has made the global order more multipolar. In economic terms, China has emerged as the largest trading partner for many countries and is predicted to become the largest economy in the world, overtaking the United States before 2040 (Figure 1.1) (Goldman Sachs, 2022[2]). This process, together with global urbanisation and digitalisation, creates political and economic redistribution and new conditions for geopolitical governance.
Source: Authors’ visualisation based on data from International Monetary Fund (2023[3]), World Economic Outlook Databases (webpage), https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending.
These events have already impacted development co-operation. The year 2023 is the midway point for implementing the United Nations (UN) 2030 Agenda and meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Conflicts, the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change have made it even more difficult for countries to reach the SDGs, stalling, and in some places reversing progress made. Increasingly frequent extreme weather events from climate change have exposed millions of people to food insecurity and reduced water security across Africa, Asia, and Central and South America (IPCC, 2023[4]). It is estimated that between 32 million to 132 million people could be pushed into poverty by 2030 as a result of climate change (Jafino et al., 2020[5]).
A food and fuel crisis driven by conflict is also hindering progress on the SDGs, and has raised inflation globally, slowed economic activity and increased many countries’ national debt (OECD, 2023[1]). Official development assistance (ODA) is also shifting in response to conflicts with more ODA being spent on in-donor refugee costs in Development Assistance Committee (DAC) member countries (OECD, 2023[6]).
Emerging economies in Asia and Latin America are demanding that regional and middle-income country perspectives be included in global policy making on sustainable development. In addition, many countries across the globe are taking on dual roles – as beneficiaries of ODA and also providing expertise and co-operation to other countries. More countries are creating or transforming agencies for development co-operation to engage in new frameworks of exchange where everyone learns and everyone contributes. South-South and triangular co-operation are growing in prominence, enabling countries to have a wider choice of development co-operation partners and a greater wealth of expertise available to help them shape their country’s development. Triangular partnerships mean countries no longer have to choose between working either with DAC providers of development co-operation or working with Southern co-operation partners. They can combine the best of both worlds through triangular partnerships.
Triangular co-operation, or trilateral, tripartite or triangular development co-operation, is internationally recognised as a key modality for delivering the SDGs (UN, 2019[7]). More than 150 countries in the UN General Assembly confirmed this in 2019 with the approval of the outcome document of the Second UN High-level Conference on South-South Co-operation, recognising that:
“… triangular cooperation is a modality that builds partnerships and trust, between all partners, and that combines diverse resources and capacities, under the ownership of the requesting developing country, to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals; and that it provides added value by leveraging and mobilizing additional technical and financial resources, sharing a wider range of experiences, promoting new areas of cooperation, and combining affordable and context-based development solutions under flexible arrangements and agreed shared modalities” (UN, 2019[7]).
Triangular co-operation is based on the principle that no country is too poor to share experiences and that no country is too rich to learn. While there is no globally shared and agreed definition of triangular or trilateral co-operation,1 all the various formulations are underpinned by a general framework that brings together at least three partners to address a development challenge. According to the Global Partnership Initiative on Effective Triangular Co-operation (2019[8]), triangular co-operation is a collaborative model of co-operation that involves three dynamic roles (Figure 1.2):
a beneficiary partner, which requests support to tackle a specific development challenge
a pivotal partner, which has relevant domestic experience in addressing the issue in a context similar to that of the beneficiary country and that shares its financial resources, knowledge and expertise
a facilitating partner, which may help connect the other partners and supports the partnership financially and/or with technical expertise.
Partners include countries (at national and subnational levels), international organisations, civil society, private philanthropy, the private sector, and academia. The roles often change throughout the lifespan of a triangular co-operation project, enabling genuinely horizontal partnerships.
Source: OECD (2022[9]), Triangular Co-operation with Africa, https://triangular-cooperation.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/OECD_Triangular-co-operation-with-Africa.pdf.
Scenario planning is a foresight tool that develops multiple narratives of how the future could look in order to explore and learn from them in terms of implications for the present (OECD, 2019[10]). This section uses this tool to explore potential opportunities and challenges for triangular co-operation in four very different future scenarios, each assuming different trajectories for geopolitical relations in the world, sustainable development and development co-operation.
These scenarios were derived by combining two different, existing sets of scenarios: the four scenarios developed by the OECD for the future of development co-operation in 20302 (OECD, 2022[11]) and the four scenarios for the future of Africa in the world3 developed by the Institute for Security Studies Africa (Cilliers, 2023[12]).The scenarios discussed in this chapter are not meant to capture the full range of plausible futures nor are they necessarily mutually exclusive.
The future of triangular co-operation is explored across the following four scenarios:
The scenarios and their implications for triangular co-operation were discussed with experts in foresight and triangular co-operation in workshops organised by the OECD and Islamic Development Bank in February 2023. Each possible future for triangular co-operation is summarised below. Drawing on the four scenarios, this and subsequent chapters make the case for scaling up the use of triangular co-operation as a modality that can deliver technical diplomacy that builds up vital trust between stakeholders and establishes horizontal partnerships that are key to delivering a post-2030 international sustainable development agenda, no matter what the future holds.
Scenario 1 – A new sustainable development world
Possible future: Countries agree and begin to implement far-reaching global commitments towards sustainable production and consumption, reducing the effects of climate change and loss of biodiversity. Developing countries’ needs are considered during the transition and support is provided to cover any negative social and economic costs that occur as a result of the transition.
Countries are taking different paths and approaches to address modern challenges, informed by the experiences of their partners in an increasingly interconnected and interdependent world (Archaya, 2017[13]). A rules-based multilateral system with a more equitable governance structure thrives. Digitalisation and new technological innovations are used to drive sustainable development and are governed by globally agreed rules, minimising their harm.
Development co-operation shifts to a greater focus on protecting global public goods. A wide array of actors from both the South and North are engaged in providing co-operation and financing extends beyond ODA to incorporate a broader set of development resources.
The deployment of triangular co-operation increases quickly as partnerships become the norm for delivering sustainable development, and countries increasingly recognise the need to work together to achieve common goals and leverage resources, expertise and experiences in horizontal partnerships. The three roles of beneficiary, pivotal and facilitating partners are fluid and shift among the countries involved, breaking down the traditional donor-recipient model and North-South divides and enabling all partners to contribute and to learn.
Scenario 2 – A fragmented world
Possible future: Individual countries and regions adopt their own measures towards sustainable production and consumption, but progress is slow due to the lack of global co-ordination. Climate risks continue to increase, with developing countries the most impacted.
The present-day trend towards a more fragmented global order is accelerated, and competition between nations and regions rises. Countries in the Global South increasingly question so-called Western norms and values. The rules-based multilateral system weakens and leadership of powerful nations or blocs dominates. Digitalisation and new technologies are not subject to effective global rules but governed at the national and regional level, and while these advances present opportunities to support sustainable development and reduce fragmentation, they also pose threats.
Multiple countries and blocs offer a diverse array of international development resources and strategies, undoubtedly giving beneficiaries greater choice than ever before. But in the absence of strong global co-ordination, development co-operation is increasingly fragmented and in places incoherent. Duplication of efforts is rife, and gaps in provision remain.
The deployment of triangular co-operation increases, with regional blocs engaging in it to share expertise among members. Countries and regional organisations keen to make the world more collaborative and sustainable, use the modality deliberately as a form of diplomacy that bridges divides between countries and geopolitical blocs, building trust that can be used beyond development co-operation to foster wider political agreements on sustainable development.
Scenario 3 – A conflicted world
Possible future: Amid intense conflict and instability around the world, progress on achieving sustainable development grinds to a halt. Climate change and biodiversity loss accelerate, while environmental degradation causes resource shortages that fuel further conflicts, harming economic development and spurring migration in a vicious cycle of instability.
The rules-based multilateral system falters, as the world becomes divided and borders between countries become more and more protected. The environmental crisis disproportionately affects developing countries, which are often at the centre of strategic competition for resources and access to markets. Countries wishing to stay neutral are under constant pressure to take sides. Digitalisation and new technologies are not governed by any global rules and are often used nefariously to assert control over populations and advance warfare.
Development co-operation is highly instrumentalised for national security goals and its scope is substantially reduced, with a strong focus on providing immediate humanitarian support to allies.
The deployment of triangular co-operations stalls. Triangular co-operation is used predominately as a means for countries to win influence with key strategic partners in a divided and conflicted world. However, even in this scenario, some countries and stakeholders – civil society, research institutions and the private sector – continue to use triangular co-operation as a form of diplomacy in an attempt to build bridges between divided nations in order to reduce conflicts and drive the world to a more sustainable path.
Scenario 4 – An unsustainable growth world
Possible future: Most countries fail to switch to sustainable growth paths and continue to pursue models of unsustainable growth, due in part to inertia and in part to powerful vested interests that have much to lose from any change in the status quo. While global income grows, costly environmental deterioration substantially reduces the positive social and economic effects of this growth. A few developing countries prosper by capitalising on growth and managing to adapt, but at a high environmental and social cost. But most struggle. Given their fragile developmental state, the impact of environmental deterioration stifles growth and development.
Countries engage in a slimmed-down, rules-based multilateral system that focuses predominately on supporting infrastructure investments, value chain inclusion, resource provision and the expansion of a business-friendly regulatory environment, with limited attention paid to sustainability. Governance is encouraged at the national and multilateral level to be lean, to provide services in fast, cheap and simple ways. Digitalisation and new technologies are governed by global rules that focus on encouraging their use to drive productivity and growth. Less attention is paid to ensuring that rules protect societies from the potential harm of these technologies.
Development co-operation flourishes but is mainly focused on supporting an enabling environment for unsustainable growth and compensating for the uneven social and environmental consequences of this relentless pursuit of growth. Public-private partnerships between development co-operation providers and tech-based, data-driven start-ups mushroom.
Triangular co-operation in this scenario is increasingly deployed. It is often used to engage the private sector with the aim of drawing on its resources and expertise in horizontal diplomacy to enable growth and offset the short-term negative impacts of this growth in the absence of sustainability. For the minority of countries engaging in sustainable development, triangular co-operation is also used to try to build bridges with other countries and drive more sustainable pathways.
The four scenarios are not predictions about the future but rather are presented to illustrate a range of possible futures. Across all the possible futures – a new sustainable development world, a fragmented world, a conflicted world and an unsustainable growth world – triangular co-operation has an important role to play. Whatever the future holds, it is clear that adopting innovative approaches to diplomacy, expanding partnerships beyond existing alliances (Müller and de la Lastra, 2022[14]), and drawing on partners’ full range of expertise, experience and resources to safeguard global public goods will be needed to achieve a sustainable world in the future.
Triangular co-operation is a modality well suited for meeting these needs. Its value added is in its ability to deliver technical diplomacy, building vital trust between strategic partners through technical engagement, and its ability to foster horizontal partnerships, which break down old hierarchies and leverage each partner’s expertise, experiences and resources.
Building trust through technical diplomacy
Countries engage in international diplomacy – continuous peaceful communication with other countries – in order to achieve their foreign policy goals, build understanding and forge closer ties with other countries (Forsberg and Marley, 2020[15]). There are numerous forms of international diplomacy, ranging from bilateral and multilateral to cultural and economic (Table 1.1).
Technical diplomacy is defined in this report as activities that pave the way for and underpin political dialogue and diplomacy through joint actions and horizontal partnerships at the technical level.
Triangular co-operation is a modality that is well suited to deliver technical diplomacy. Partners invest in two goals at the same time when engaging in triangular co-operation: first, to build strategic partnerships, often between the facilitator and pivotal partners, for national, regional and global goals and second, to achieve effective development results in the beneficiary partner (OECD, 2018[16]).
The effectiveness of technical diplomacy hinges on the link between technical collaboration and diplomatic political dialogue (Cowan and Arsenault, 2008[19]). This is a two-way connection: Political dialogue guides technical collaboration by establishing agendas and goals for action and setting a broader framework for action while technical collaboration nurtures political dialogue by providing meaningful examples of successful activities (Figure 1.3).
Technical diplomacy offers a platform for technical experts to engage with other stakeholders such as line ministries, local and regional authorities, NGOs, and the private sector. These exchanges facilitate learning and knowledge sharing. They also help build important trust – an asset that can transcend the technical engagement to infuse broader political dialogue in other arenas, making it easier for countries to discuss differing norms and values (Emrich and Schulze, 2017[20]) and reach agreements. The United States and India’s triangular co-operation which is enabling India to share its innovations with beneficiaries in Asia and Africa is also clearly intended to strengthen the two nations’ diplomatic and political ties (Box 1.1).
Technical diplomacy is closely linked with the types of diplomacy that emphasise greater citizen involvement in international relations, such as new diplomacy or track II diplomacy, as illustrated in the overview of different types of diplomacy in Table 1.1.
Naturally, delivering technical diplomacy via triangular co-operation requires a high level of investment at the beginning of a project. Triangular co-operation typically involves a robust initial negotiation phase where the partners discuss key concepts, establish a common language and clarify their contributions. Clear partner commitments can enhance ownership and strengthen collaboration.
Recognising their countries’ long history of engagement, President Biden of the United States and Prime Minister Modi of India explicitly celebrated their triangular co-operation in 2021 as part of broader diplomatic efforts to work together as a force for good to enhance security, trade and investment and to tackle global challenges such as climate change and global health (The White House, 2021[21]). A joint Statement of Guiding Principles on Triangular Co-operation for Global Development steers the two countries’ ’technical diplomacy via triangular co-operation which was recently extended in 2021. Their triangular co-operation brings together United States government officials, research and private sector actors, and Indian government officials, researchers and private sector actors to help share India’s expertise in areas including agriculture, energy, and family planning, child, and maternal health care with partners in Southeast Asia and Africa.
Source: The White House (2021[21]), “U.S.-India Joint Leaders’ Statement: A Partnership for Global Good”, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/09/24/u-s-india-joint-leaders-statement-a-partnership-for-global-good/.
Fostering horizonal partnerships
Triangular co-operation can also help to build horizontal partnerships. Its three-way partnerships can help balance power relations and foster horizontal exchanges, thereby transcending donor-recipient dynamics and enabling all partners to share their expertise, experience and resources. The four foresight scenarios above show that existing binary divisions between countries – for instance, between the Global North and Global South and between donors and recipients – may increasingly become less rigid as the world evolves.
Triangular co-operation recognises that all partners have something to bring to the table according to their experiences and knowledge and that all partners also have something to learn. Triangular co-operation enables the governments of a wide range of countries to enter into a new partnership in the role of either beneficiary, pivotal or facilitating partner irrespective of income or other classifications. The roles are defined according to the knowledge and resources that each partner brings to the table and how these contributions relate to the objectives of the project. Building on the foresight exercise, the four scenarios and on the notion of technical diplomacy, triangular co-operation is positioning itself as a modality that interlinks and maximises knowledge and technical expertise to answer concrete challenges.
References
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Notes
← 1. This publication uses the terms triangular and trilateral interchangeably.
← 2. The OECD describes four scenarios for the future of development co-operation in 2030: 1) a new development co-operation global architecture takes root, 2) development co-operation power dynamics shift, 3) locally led development co-operation culminates and 4) development co-operation digitalises.
← 3. The Institute for Security Studies in South Africa describes four scenarios: a sustainable, new development world; a divided and regionalised world; a world at war or conflicted world; and a private sector, growth world.