Annex B. Econometric analyses

In order to test the relationship between trust in public institutions, its main drivers and the impact of other contextual variables, the study carried out an analysis based on linear regressions. In all regressions, independent variables are normalised, meaning that the coefficients reported represent the change in the dependent variable as a result of one standard deviation increase in the explanatory variable. Results from linear regressions are presented for trust in government, the local government and the civil service.

The policy and contextual drivers of trust in government, the local government and the civil service are presented respectively in Tables B.1, B.2 and B.3. The three instances are regressed using the three broad categories presented in the conceptual framework: a) interpersonal drivers; b) policy drivers (i.e. competences and values) and c) sustainability and perception of government actions in key societal trends. Each of the individual categories is first regressed on the dependent variable, first including the full set of variables, and in the following using a selection determined by a stepwise regression. In the final columns, all three categories are grouped together, and the significant variables are retained (using the same methodology). The full models, marked in bold, have the higher explanatory power and are those retained for subsequent policy analysis based (See Chapters 2-4).

Table A B.1. Trust in government
	Interpersonal drivers		Policy drivers (competence and values)		Sustainability and key societal trends		Full model
VARIABLES	All	Selection	All	Selection	All	Selection	All	Selection
Interpersonal trust	0.741***	0.749***					0.364***	0.371***
	-0.0705	-0.0697					-0.0662	-0.064
Gender	0.459***	0.470***					0.265**	0.357***
	-0.122	-0.119					-0.109	-0.103
Education	0.0514						0.0500*
	-0.0335						-0.0303
Migration background	0.906***						0.486*
	-0.321						-0.287
Age	-0.0268						-0.106*
	-0.0634						-0.056
Employment status (employed)	-0.326**						-0.241*
	-0.141						-0.126
Income	0.127*						0.0796
	-0.0711						-0.0631
Geographical location (urban)	0.138						0.151
	-0.156						-0.138
Political efficacy (having a say)	0.815***	0.825***					0.240***	0.234***
	-0.0787	-0.0654					-0.0838	-0.0656
Political efficacy (ability to participate in politics)	-0.132						-0.091
	-0.0872						-0.074
Participated at recent meeting party, union, etc	0.187						-0.164
	-0.281						-0.264
Signed a petition (including online)	0.379***	0.431***					0.151
	-0.131	-0.13					-0.113
Interest in politics	0.0729						0.0499
	-0.0887						-0.0751
Political orientation (right)	-0.328***	-0.315***					-0.283***	-0.328***
	-0.0649	-0.0654					-0.0559	-0.0541
Service adaptation (responsiveness)			0.524***	0.630***			0.450***	0.509***
			-0.0855	-0.0768			-0.0834	-0.0791
Innovation service provision (responsiveness)			0.121				0.0103
			-0.0904				-0.0826
Preparedness public institutions to fight spread of new disease (reliability)			0.352***	0.365***			0.207**
			-0.0868	-0.0785			-0.0861
Stability regulatory conditions (reliability)			0.349***	0.356***			0.298***	0.357***
			-0.0831	-0.0804			-0.0771	-0.0725
Revolving door (integrity)			0.129*				0.0708
			-0.067				-0.0622
High level officials refusing bribes (integrity)			0.213***	0.258***			0.130*	0.178***
			-0.0768	-0.0677			-0.0711	-0.0642
Voicing concerns (openness)			0.147				0.0045
			-0.0898				-0.0859
Availability of information (openness)			-0.0326				-0.146**
			-0.0759				-0.0732
Equality of treatment socioeconomic characteristics (fairness)			-0.171**				-0.0997
			-0.0697				-0.0705
Equality sharing burden reforms (fairness)			0.272***	0.298***			0.11
			-0.0848	-0.0822			-0.0785
Public institutions doing enough to address the sustainability of the environment					-0.430***	-0.426***	-0.172**
					-0.0792	-0.079	-0.0705
Public institutions doing enough to ensure social cohesion					0.461***	0.505***	0.107
					-0.107	-0.0967	-0.0964
Public institutions doing enough to address future challenges (reliability)					1.030***	1.055***	0.511***	0.474***
					-0.0959	-0.0957	-0.0882	-0.0709
Public institutions doing enough to ensure equal opportunities in life					0.102		-0.0988
					-0.0848		-0.0827
Constant	4.533***	5.181***	6.576***	6.578***	6.571***	6.571***	5.966***	6.049***
	-0.631	-0.314	-0.0529	-0.0533	-0.0581	-0.0581	-0.571	-0.162
Observations	926	926	971	971	979	979	891	891
R-squared	0.385	0.368	0.474	0.462	0.35	0.349	0.563	0.538
Robust standard errors in parentheses
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

Table A B.2. Trust in local government
	Interpersonal drivers		Policy drivers (competences and values)		Sustainability and key societal trends		Full model
VARIABLES	All	Selection	All	Selection	All	Selection	All	Selection
Interpersonal trust	0.674***	0.684***					0.340***	0.324***
	-0.0663	-0.0663					-0.0652	-0.0641
Gender	0.128						0.0268
	-0.112						-0.105
Education	0.00346						-0.00158
	-0.0324						-0.0294
Migration background	0.994***	1.083***					0.489**
	-0.28	-0.286					-0.239
Age	-0.123**						-0.190***
	-0.0595						-0.0537
Employment status (employed)	-0.237*						-0.229*
	-0.13						-0.12
Income	0.0641						0.0357
	-0.0654						-0.0599
Geographical location (urban)	-0.0423						-0.106
	-0.152						-0.141
Political efficacy (having a say)	0.657***	0.619***					0.0955
	-0.0664	-0.0572					-0.0747
Political efficacy (ability to participate in politics)	-0.206***						-0.192***
	-0.0752						-0.0691
Participated at recent meeting party, union, etc	0.255						0.027
	-0.251						-0.258
Signed a petition (including online)	0.303***						0.0601
	-0.116						-0.104
Interest in politics	0.182**						0.181***	0.195***
	-0.0707						-0.0611	-0.059
Political orientation (right)	0.0326						0.0259
	-0.055						-0.0518
Service adaptation (responsiveness)			0.286***	0.319***			0.213***	0.278***
			-0.0776	-0.0772			-0.0767	-0.0781
Innovation service provision (responsiveness)			0.240***	0.255***			0.182**	0.231***
			-0.0777	-0.0775			-0.0773	-0.0798
Preparedness public institutions to fight spread of new disease (reliability)			0.253***	0.306***			0.176**	0.216***
			-0.0774	-0.0722			-0.0797	-0.0748
Stability regulatory conditions (reliability)			0.164**				0.126*
			-0.0739				-0.0755
Revolving door (integrity)			0.114*				0.136**	0.202***
			-0.0643				-0.064	-0.0537
High level officials refusing bribes (integrity)			0.156**	0.229***			0.063
			-0.0714	-0.061			-0.0715
Voicing concerns (openness)			0.294***	0.354***			0.233***	0.283***
			-0.0777	-0.0733			-0.0816	-0.0706
Availability of information (openness)			0.105				-0.0189
			-0.0723				-0.075
Equality of treatment socioeconomic characteristics (fairness)			-0.0185				-0.0532
			-0.0652				-0.0697
Equality sharing burden reforms (fairness)			0.165**	0.216***			0.0861
			-0.072	-0.0736			-0.0745
Public institutions doing enough to address the sustainability of the environment					-0.0772		0.0526
					-0.0695		-0.0643
Public institutions doing enough to ensure social cohesion					0.413***	0.381***	0.197**	0.297***
					-0.0983	-0.0989	-0.0856	-0.0669
Public institutions doing enough to address future challenges (reliability)					0.603***	0.590***	0.132
					-0.086	-0.0848	-0.0802
Public institutions doing enough to ensure equal opportunities in life					0.243***	0.239***	-0.0968
					-0.0819	-0.0818	-0.0856
Constant	5.011***	6.224***	6.252***	6.253***	6.262***	6.261***	6.114***	6.265***
	-0.556	-0.0535	-0.0466	-0.0471	-0.0522	-0.0522	-0.567	-0.0464
Observations	922	922	969	969	976	976	889	889
R-squared	0.345	0.324	0.467	0.458	0.325	0.324	0.507	0.49

Table A B.3. Trust in the Civil Service
	Interpersonal drivers		Policy drivers (competence and values)		Sustainability key social trends		Full model
VARIABLES	All	Selection	All	Selection	All	Selection	All	Selection
Interpersonal trust	0.699***	0.728***					0.341***	0.360***
	-0.0688	-0.0665					-0.0645	-0.0615
Gender	0.214**						0.109
	-0.105						-0.0954
Education	0.0403						0.0287
	-0.0272						-0.0249
Migration background	0.854***	0.853***					0.279
	-0.287	-0.278					-0.248
Age	-0.00804						-0.0371
	-0.055						-0.0495
Employment status (employed)	-0.0593						0.0347
	-0.128						-0.113
Income	0.142**	0.136***					0.0843	0.0921**
	-0.0647	-0.0483					-0.0584	-0.0426
Geographical location (urban)	0.054						0.0555
	-0.132						-0.123
Political efficacy (having a say)	0.612***	0.613***					0.0295
	-0.0691	-0.0571					-0.0709
Political efficacy (ability to participate in politics)	-0.105						-0.0696
	-0.0841						-0.0719
Participated at recent meeting party, union, etc	0.0771						-0.224
	-0.232						-0.223
Signed a petition (including online)	0.291**						0.0822
	-0.116						-0.101
Interest in politics	0.157**						0.11
	-0.0759						-0.0674
Political orientation (right)	0.019						-0.0103
	-0.0549						-0.0501
Service adaptation (responsiveness)			0.399***	0.503***			0.362***	0.405***
			-0.0802	-0.0748			-0.0773	-0.0781
Innovation service provision (responsiveness)			0.172**				0.105	0.163**
			-0.0799				-0.08	-0.0719
Preparedness public institutions to fight spread of new disease (reliability)			0.250***	0.293***			0.137*
			-0.0776	-0.0733			-0.0798
Stability regulatory conditions (reliability)			0.194***	0.215***			0.11	0.172***
			-0.0726	-0.072			-0.0711	-0.0654
Revolving door (integrity)			0.0217				0.0331
			-0.0607				-0.0575
High level officials refusing bribes (integrity)			0.260***	0.273***			0.151**	0.196***
			-0.0681	-0.0599			-0.0639	-0.0575
Voicing concerns (openness)			0.104				0.0455
			-0.0752				-0.078
Availability of information (openness)			0.217***	0.270***			0.1	0.140**
			-0.0702	-0.0674			-0.0696	-0.0654
Equality of treatment socioeconomic characteristics (fairness)			0.0196				-0.0561
			-0.0614				-0.0633
Equality sharing burden reforms (fairness)			0.161**	0.203***			0.0503
			-0.0686	-0.0665			-0.0734
Public institutions doing enough to address the sustainability of the environment					-0.175***	-0.175***	-0.0845
					-0.0663	-0.0663	-0.0658
Public institutions doing enough to ensure social cohesion					0.406***	0.406***	0.163*	0.154**
					-0.0939	-0.0939	-0.0854	-0.0775
Public institutions doing enough to address future challenges (reliability)					0.605***	0.605***	0.233***	0.270***
					-0.0866	-0.0866	-0.08	-0.0753
Public institutions doing enough to ensure equal opportunities in life					0.376***	0.376***	0.0869
					-0.0731	-0.0731	-0.0764
Constant	5.443***	6.531***	6.887***	6.886***	6.889***	6.889***	6.680***	6.680***
	-0.525	-0.137	-0.0445	-0.0447	-0.0495	-0.0495	-0.489	-0.12
Observations	918	918	964	964	971	971	884	884
R-squared	0.376	0.361	0.497	0.49	0.371	0.371	0.548	0.533