22. Japan

Japanese SMEs accounted for 99.7% of all businesses and employed 33 million individuals, approximately 69.7% of the private sector labour force in 2021.

Lending to SMEs continuously declined between 2007 and 2012, with a total decrease of 6.6% over that period. In 2013, the volume of outstanding SME loans shifted upward and has increased consistently since then: JPY 323.6 trillion in 2021 and JPY 335.9 trillion in 2022.

Average interest rates on new short-term loans in Japan have been very low and further declined between 2007 and 2022, falling from 1.64% to nearly a quarter of that amount (0.42%) because of the policy of monetary easing. Long-term interest rates on new loans followed a broadly similar pattern, more than halving from 1.73% in 2007 to 0.78% in 2022.

Japanese venture capital investments peaked at JPY 193 billion in FY2007, before decreasing by 29.5% and 36.0% in FY2008 and FY2009, respectively. After fluctuating for the following five years, the volume of VC investments started to increase in 2015. Since then, VC investments have been on a rapid rise, except for a sharp drop amid the disruption of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and reached their highest value of JPY 341 billion in FY2021. The Government of Japan endeavours to increase the number and scale of startups.

Leasing volumes to SMEs plummeted in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, dropping by almost 40% between 2007 and 2009. Subsequently, with the recovery of domestic capital investment demand, the volumes have been on an upward trend and recovered to JPY 2.7 trillion in 2019. More recently, the amount of leasing decreased to JPY 2.1 trillion in 2021 and rose slightly to JPY 2.2 trillion in 2022.

SME bankruptcies, which account for more than 99% of all bankruptcies in Japan, decreased from 15,500 in 2008 to 6000 in 2021. With COVID-19 financing support measures, the number of SME bankruptcies was curbed at approximately 6,000 in 2021, the lowest level over the last 57 years, before experiencing an increase of 6.6% in 2022.

Total non-performing business loans have declined continuously since FY2013, after having experienced erratic movement over the FY2007-12 period. In FY2019, total NPLs decreased to JPY 10.3 trillion, followed by increases to JPY 11.5 trillion in FY2020 and 12.6 trillion in FY2021.

The Japanese Government offers financial support for SMEs in the form of credit guarantees and direct loans. In 2020, as a response to the COVID-19 crisis, government-affiliated and private financial institutions provided interest-free and unsecured loans. As of March 2022, the total amount of outstanding SME loans was approximately JPY 314 trillion (provided by domestically licensed banks and credit associations); the outstanding amount of the credit guarantee programme was JPY 41.9 trillion (covering 1.58 million SMEs); and the outstanding amount of the direct loan programme was JPY 29.8 trillion, (covering 1.33 million of Japan’s 3.58 million SMEs).

While the Japanese economy continued to recover moderately from the COVID-19 crisis, its growth rate in FY2022 was 1.4%, affected by the global energy and food price hikes and the global economic slowdown. GDP growth is projected at 1.3% in FY2023 as of July 2023, attributed to a recovery in personal consumption, including service consumption, and an increase in corporate capital investment, although a slowdown in exports is expected to put downward pressure on the economy.

Real GDP growth has moderately recovered with a pickup in domestic demand, such as consumer spending and capital investment since 2022, although the service sector suffered a delayed recovery. The real GDP growth rate has turned positive from -4.1% (FY2020) to 2.7% (FY2021) and 1.4% (FY2022) (Cabinet Office (2023) [1]). In FY2023, there is concern about an export slowdown that would depress the economy, but it is expected that private consumption, including service consumption, would recover and corporate capital investment would rise, leading to moderately private demand-led growth of about 1.3% in real terms.

In general, increases in import prices for energy and food were passed on to domestic prices and contributed to boosting the consumer price index, which was 3.2% in FY2022 and is projected to be approximately 2.6% in FY2023 (Cabinet Office (2023) [2]). Under these rising prices, wage increases reached a high level of over 3% for the first time in 30 years as a result of the 2023 spring labour-management wage negotiations. If such wage increases broadly spread across Japan, leading to appropriate sales price revisions, a virtuous cycle between wages and prices is expected to materialise. Recently, the situation has started moving toward breaking away from prolonged deflation (Cabinet Office (2023) [3]).

In Japan, the Government and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) strengthened their policy coordination in 2013 with the aim of overcoming deflation as early as possible and achieving sustainable economic growth. The BOJ has continued large-scale monetary easing for the past decade, with a 2% price stability target. While many countries have tightened monetary policy by raising policy interest rates to curb inflation since the first quarter of 2022, the BOJ has continued its monetary easing measures that maintained low-interest rates (short-term at -0.1% and long-term at around 0%) through Yield Curve Control. As a result, the yen has depreciated (JPY 150 per USD, 20 Aug 2022). In December 2022, when the BOJ increased the range of fluctuation in long-term interest rates from ±0.25% to ±0.5%, the yen reached its highest level in seven months (JPY 127 per USD, 14 Jan 2023) due to the prospect of further interest hikes. However, after the BOJ officially announced continuous monetary easing, keeping the status quo on interest rates in April 2023, the yen weakened again (JPY 145 per USD, 15 Aug 2023).

Japan’s economic activity and prices are exposed to extremely high uncertainties, including developments in overseas economic activity and prices, developments in commodity prices, and domestic firms’ wage and price setting behaviour. Under these circumstances, it is necessary to closely monitor developments in financial and foreign exchange markets and their impact on Japan’s economic activity and prices (Bank of Japan (2023) [2]).

SMEs accounted for 99.7% of all Japanese businesses and employed 33 million individuals, or approximately 69.7% of the private sector labour force in 2021.

Outstanding loans to SMEs decreased every year between 2007 and 2012, and cumulatively by 6.6%. In 2013, however, outstanding SME loans increased by 1.5% and have continued to increase since then. Outstanding SME loans in 2016 were JPY 265.6 trillion and increased by 3.6% in 2017 to JPY 275.4 trillion. In 2017, outstanding SME loans were 5.6% higher than 2007 levels, indicating an improving financial landscape for SMEs and a return to pre-crisis credit conditions.

In 2020, corporate financing significantly increased through the COVID-19-related financing of substantially interest-free loans without requiring collateral provided by government-affiliated financial institutions and private financial institutions. This contributed to curbing the number of corporate bankruptcies. Looking at total business loans, including large companies, the increase in outstanding borrowings under the COVID-19 pandemic was noticeably higher than that of the 2008 financial crisis, so that companies, regardless of their scale, could secure liquidity on hand in preparation for sustaining their businesses until economic activity went back to normal. In this context, SME outstanding loans substantially increased to JPY 314.9 trillion by nearly 10% year-on-year, accumulating to JPN 335.9 trillion in 2022.

However, the share of SME outstanding loans to 70.0% in 2022 has not recovered to pre-2008 financial crisis levels and indicates a gap between SMEs and large enterprises. The share of SME outstanding loans dropped from 72.8% in 2007 to a low of 67.5% in 2019. SMEs have been investing more in recent years but not to the extent that large companies have. Since 2019, the share of SME outstanding loans over the total outstanding loans has increased amid the COVID-19 crisis and was approximately 70.0% in 2022, still below pre-financial crisis levels.

Surveys conducted for SMEs imply the easing of collateral requirements between 2018 and 2021. Of SMEs that receive loans from their mainly using bank, 29.4% provided with physical collateral in FY2018. This rate steadily decreased over the period, resulting in 26.0% in FY2021.

Average interest rates on new short-term loans in Japan are very low and have declined every year for more than the past decade, decreasing from 1.64% in 2007 to a quarter of that amount (0.42%) in 2022. Long-term interest rates on new loans followed a broadly similar pattern, more than halving from 1.73% in 2007 to 0.78% in 2022 and were thus slightly higher than short-term interest rates.

As of July 2023, corporate financing costs remain at extremely low levels. Lending rates (average new interest rates) have increased slightly for long-term loans but have remained at extremely low levels for short-term loans. Similarly, the environment for commercial paper (CP) and corporate bond issuance has been accommodative. The credit demand of firms increased moderately against the backdrop of a recovery in economic activity and the existing high cost of raw materials. Consequently, the year-on-year rate of increase in outstanding bank loans is in the mid-3% range and that in aggregate outstanding CP and corporate bonds issued is in the mid-1% range (Bank of Japan (2023) [1]).

Japanese venture capital investments once peaked in 2007 at JPY 193 billion, but experienced a decrease afterward. A decade later, venture capital investments have recovered to 197 billion and continued an upward trend, reaching JPY 341 billion in 2021 despite a sharp decrease in 2020 when large number of investments were postponed in response to the COVID-19 outbreak.

Seed and early-stage investments have become increasingly important to SME financing in the venture capital sphere. In 2010, seed and early-stage investments accounted for 32.5% of total venture capital investments. This share increased drastically to 73.7% in 2019 before decreasing slightly to 70.0% in 2021. Meanwhile, expansion and later stage investments accounted for 30.0% in 2021, which was +2.1 p.p., compared with the previous year.

Leasing volumes to SMEs plummeted in the aftermath of the financial crisis, by almost 40% between 2007 and 2009. Between 2010 and 2013, leasing volumes recovered and expanded year-on-year. Since 2013, however, SME leasing has been somewhat erratic but nonetheless relatively stable with no big shifts in leasing volumes with the exception of 2014. In 2019, leasing volumes to SMEs were approximately JPY 2.7 trillion before a sharp drop in 2021 (to JPY 2.1 trillion). Despite the slight increase in 2022, leasing volumes have not reached pre-crisis levels (JPY 3.5 trillion in 2007).

SME bankruptcies, which account for more than 99% of all bankruptcies in Japan, remarkably decreased since 2008 and stood at 6027 in 2021, the lowest level over the last 57 years, before a slight increase with 6425 cases in 2022. COVID-19-related loans by public and private financial institutions helped SMEs to survive in the markets; however, some SMEs have failed in their repayments, due to the slow recovery of the economy.

Total non-performing business loans have been on a downward trend since FY2013, after having experienced erratic movement at around JPY 17.0 trillion over the FY2007-12 period. NPLs, however, started to increase from FY2020, resulting in 12.6 trillion as of March 2022.

The Japanese Government offers substantial financial support to meet SMEs’ financing needs in the form of credit guarantees and direct loans. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the government responded by taking steps to ensure that SMEs do not face serious financial difficulties. Specifically, the government set up consultation desks, relaxed the requirements for Safety Net Loans, designated the No. 4 Safety Nets for Financing Guarantee, which provides a 100% guarantee, as a nationwide programme, activated crisis-related guarantees, and expanded the scope of industries covered by the No. 5 Safety Nets for Financing Guarantee. In addition to these, government-affiliated financial institutions and private financial institutions started substantially interest-free loans without requiring collateral.

To support businesses whose financial situation has deteriorated due to COVID-19, the government provided Capital Subordinated Loans against COVID-19 through government-affiliated financial institutions, which financial institutions can estimate as capital for appraisal purposes. It has also made efforts to provide capital funds by supporting the formation of public-private funds such as the Small and Medium Enterprise Management Strengthening Support Fund and the Small and Medium Enterprise Revitalisation Fund for the purpose of fundamental business revitalisation in order to prevent the bankruptcy and closure of core regional enterprises. Since the repayment of debts accumulated through the COVID-19 pandemic was expected to become an issue in the future, the government launched a new COVID-19-related guaranteed refinancing system in January 2023, and also held information sessions on measures and examples of business support for public and private financial institutions and support organisations.

As of March 2022, the total amount of outstanding SME loans was approximately JPY 314 trillion. Of this volume, JPY 41.9 trillion was guaranteed by the credit guarantee programme and JPY 29.8 trillion worth of loans was provided directly by public financial institutions. Also, as of March 2022, the credit guarantee programme covered 1.58 million SMEs, while the direct loan programme reached 1.33 million of Japan’s 3.58 million SMEs.

Furthermore, in December 2022, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Financial Services Agency, and Ministry of Finance jointly announced the Management Guarantee Reform Programme to promote financing practices that do not rely on management guarantees. The main features of the programme include: a new guarantee programme for establishment of business that does not require a personal guarantee by the business owner, which was started in March 2023; stricter procedures for requesting a personal guarantee by the business owner for loans provided by private financial institutions; and a credit guarantee system whereby the management can choose to cancel the guarantee by paying an additional guarantee fee, if the requirements are met.

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