Life expectancy
The remarkable increase in life expectancy is one of the greatest achievements of the last century. Lives continue to get longer, and this trend is predicted to continue although the pace of improvement in old age has slowed slightly. In 2020, life expectancy at birth averaged 72.7 years for men and 78.4 years for women. Among women, the figure was highest in Hong Kong (China) (88.3 years) and lowest in Pakistan (68.8 years). For men, life expectancy at birth was again highest in Hong Kong (China) (82.2 years) and again lowest in Pakistan (63.9). On average across the Asian economies, remaining life expectancy at age 65 is projected to increase by 3.7 years among women and 4.0 years among men by 2060.
Life expectancy at birth averaged 72.7 years for men and 78.4 years for women among the Asian economies in 2020 (Figure 3.2). For the OECD the average was 77.5 years for men and 82.9 years for women.
Remaining life expectancy at 65 significantly contributes to well-being at older ages. It also influences the finances of retirement-income systems. In 2020, on average in the Asian economies, women aged 65 could expect to live an additional 18.7 years, which is forecast to increase to 22.4 years by 2060 (Figure 3.3). Men of the same age could expect to live 15.3 more years in 2020, with a projected increase of 4.0 years by 2060 to reach about 19.3 years (Figure 3.4). Gender gaps are therefore expected to decrease slightly over the next 40 years (from 3.4 to 3.1 years on average).
There is considerable variation between economies in life expectancy at older ages. Women in Hong Kong (China) are predicted to live another 29.1 years on reaching age 65 in 2060, followed by Singapore (27.1 years). In contrast, women in Pakistan are expected to live an extra 15.9 years. For men there is less variation between economies than there is for women. Hong Kong (China) and Pakistan are again at the extremes for life expectancy at age 65 in 2060 at 24.5 and 13.5 years respectively.
In 2020, on average in OECD countries, women aged 65 could expect to live an additional 20.8 years, which is forecast to increase to 25.1 years by 2060 (Figure 3.3). Men of the same age could expect to live 17.4 more years in 2020, with a projected increase of 5.0 years by 2060 to reach about 22.4 years (Figure 3.4).
Women in Japan are predicted to live another 28.6 years on reaching age 65 in 2060, followed by Korea (27.6 years). In contrast, women in the United States are expected to live an extra 24.7 years. For men there is less variation between countries than there is for women. New Zealand will have the longest life expectancy at age 65 in 2060 (24.0 years), followed by Australia and Canada (23.9 and 23.8 years). By contrast, Korea (22.4), Germany and the United States (both 22.9) are ranked at the bottom.
The gender gap in life expectancy at age 65 is predicted to be between almost two and four years in favour of women in nearly all Asian economies in 2060. Larger gender gaps of 4.3 and 4.7 years are observed in Thailand and Hong Kong (China), respectively. The smallest gender gap are forecasted for Malaysia and India at 1.9 and 2.2 years, respectively.
The gender for OECD countries is also forecast to be between almost two and four years in favour of women in 2060. Larger gender gaps of 5.0 and 5.2 years are observed in both Japan and Korea, respectively. The smallest gender gap are forecasted for the United Kingdom and the United States at 1.7 and 1.8 years respectively.
Given this trend, many OECD countries have increased or legislated to increase their pension benefit eligibility ages. Others have introduced elements into their retirement-income provision that will automatically adjust the level of pensions as people live longer. Overall longevity gains are due to rising living standards, but also greater access to quality health services.
Definition and measurement
Life expectancy is defined as the average number of years that people of a particular age could expect to live if they experienced the age- and sex-specific mortality rates prevalent in a given country in a particular year: in this case, 2020 and 2060. Since the determinants of longevity change slowly, life expectancy is best analysed over a long-time horizon.
Note: Shown is period life expectancy that is computed from mortality rates that apply in a specific period, here 2020, rather than to a specific birth cohort.
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, (2022). World Population Prospects 2022, Online Edition.
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, (2022). World Population Prospects 2022, Online Edition.
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, (2022); World Population Prospects 2022, Online Edition.