1. Socio-economic and environmental trends in Glasgow, United Kingdom
This chapter provides an overview of the rationale for the circular economy transition in the city of Glasgow, United Kingdom (UK), by looking at the main socio-economic and environmental data and trends. As a post-industrial city, Glasgow seeks to create the conditions for a sustainable future, through the circular economy, by generating local jobs and enhancing the sense of community. The city has been severely impacted by the health and economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, as the Scottish city with the greatest decline in gross value added (GVA) in 2020.
For cities and regions, the circular economy represents an opportunity to rethink production and consumption models, services and infrastructure. As the places where people live and work, consume and dispose, cities and regions play a fundamental role in the transition to the circular economy. By 2050, the global population will reach 9 billion people, 55% of which will be living in cities, high-density places of at least 50 000 inhabitants (OECD/EC, 2020[1]). The pressure on natural resources will increase, while new infrastructure, services and housing will be needed. Already, cities represent almost two-thirds of global energy demand (IEA, 2016[2]), release up to 70% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (World Bank, 2010[3]), consume 80% of food (FAO, 2020[4]) and produce 50% of global waste (UNEP, 2013[5]). The circular economy is based on three principles: i) design out waste and pollution; ii) keep products and materials in use; and iii) regenerate natural systems (Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2019[6]). There are many definitions of the circular economy (Box 1.1). According to the OECD (2020[7]), in cities and regions, the circular economy implies a systemic shift, whereby: services (e.g. from water to waste and energy) are provided making efficient use of natural resources as primary materials and optimising their reuse; economic activities are planned and carried out in a way to close, slow and narrow loops across value chains; and infrastructure is designed and built to avoid linear locks-in (e.g. district heating, smart grid, etc.).
An economic system that replaces the end-of-life concept, with reducing, alternatively using, recycling and recovering materials in production/distribution and consumption processes. It operates at the micro level (products, companies, consumers), meso level (eco-industrial parks) and macro level (city, region, nation and beyond), with the aim of accomplishing sustainable development, thus simultaneously creating environmental quality, economic prosperity and social equity, to the benefit of current and future generations. It is enabled by novel business models and responsible consumers (Kirchherr, Reike and Hekkert, 2017[8]).
The circular economy is one that has low environmental impacts and makes good use of natural resources through high resource efficiency and waste prevention, especially in the manufacturing sector, and minimal end-of-life disposal of materials (Ekins et al., 2019[9]).
The circular economy is restorative and regenerative by design. Relying on system-wide innovation, it aims to redefine products and services to design waste out while minimising negative impacts. A circular economy is then an alternative to a traditional linear economy (make, use, dispose) (Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2018[10]).
The circular economy is where the value of products, materials and resources is maintained in the economy for as long as possible by returning them into the product cycle at the end of their use, thus minimising the generation of waste (EC, 2015[11]).
There are three different layers of circularity, with increasingly broad coverage: i) closing resource loops, which is defined relative to a traditional economic system; ii) slowing resource loops and materials flows; and iii) narrowing resource loops, which implies a more efficient use of materials, natural resources and products within the linear system (OECD, 2019[12]).
Source: EC (2015[11]), Circular Economy – Overview, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/circular-economy; Ellen MacArthur Foundation, (2018[10]), What is a circular economy?, www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/circular-economy/concept ; Ekins, P. et al. (2019[9]), The Circular Economy: What, Why, How and Where; McCarthy, A., R. Dellink and R. Bibas (2018[13]), “The Macroeconomics of the Circular Economy Transition: A Critical Review of Modelling Approaches”, https://doi.org/10.1787/af983f9a-en; OECD (2019[12]), Global Material Resources Outlook to 2060: Economic Drivers and Environmental Consequences, https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264307452-en; Kirchherr, J., D. Reike and M. Hekkert (2017[8]), Conceptualizing the Circular Economy: An Analysis of 114 Definitions.
According to the results of the OECD Survey on the Circular Economy in Cities and Regions, major drivers for transitioning to a circular economy are environmental (climate change, 73%), institutional (global agendas, 52%) and socio-economic ones (changing economic conditions, 51%). Additionally, the circular transition is driven by job creation (47%), private sector initiatives (46%), new business models (43%), technical developments (43%) and research and development (R&D) (41%) (Figure 1.1) (OECD, 2020[14]). In line with these results, the circular economy in Glasgow is perceived as a socio-economic paradigm that can help tackle climate change, generate positive economic impact in the city and improve the use of natural resources (e.g. land use) (OECD, 2020[14]). Figure 1.2 shows the words that the city, through the OECD Survey on the Circular Economy in Cities and Regions (OECD, 2020[14]), associates with the circular economy concept (the larger the word in the figure, the greater the importance). These words are: “system change”, “innovation”, “green growth”, “partnerships” and “business model”. The section below describes the socio-economic and environmental characteristics of the city, setting the basis for a transition from a linear to a circular economy.
The city of Glasgow, UK, aims at becoming the first circular city in Scotland1. In Glasgow, whose Gaelic name, Glaschu, means “dear green place”, the transition aims to be simultaneously “green” and “just”, generating socio-economic opportunities through the localisation of the economy, facilitating access to jobs, reducing spatial inequalities by promoting place-based initiatives across the city, and bringing social benefits to the most vulnerable groups. This is very relevant during the post-COVID-19 crisis, which also hit Glasgow in terms of increased unemployment and required local and national responses (Box 1.2). By July 2021, although Scotland recorded a lower unemployment rate than the UK (4.3% and 4.8% respectively), employment had not yet recovered to the pre-COVID-19 level (unemployment rate of 3.7% in February 2020) (ONS, 2020[15]). The OECD report on cities’ policy responses to COVID-19 (2020[16]) showed that the crisis strikingly exposed inequality across people and places, especially in large cities, where vulnerable groups such as migrants, the poor, women and the elderly were hit hard. Failing to address these inequalities not only hinders the effectiveness of green policies, it also reduces the social buy-in and participation in the circular economy transition.
Note: The respondent had to choose the top 5 words most often associated with the circular economy. The answer is based on the following question: “Please indicate the top 5 words from the list suggested below you most often associate with the circular economy in your context, ranking from 1 (most important) to 5 (less important)”.
Source: Own elaboration based on the city of Glasgow’s answers to OECD (2020[14]), OECD Survey on Circular Economy in Cities and Regions, OECD, Paris.
The city of Glasgow, UK, ranked first in terms of caseload and number of deaths in Scotland (1 633 deaths as of September 2021). Data report a reduction of the GVA for the city of Glasgow for 2020 (-6.7%) and a slow recovery in 2021 (3.4%) (KPMG, 2020[17]).In response to the economic consequences of the pandemic, the city created the COVID-19 Recovery Group. The group is composed of members from the Glasgow Economic Leadership, the Glasgow Partnership for Economic Growth, the Glasgow Economic Commission and external experts from several institutions including the private sector (e.g. Glasgow Chamber of Commerce) and academia (e.g. University of Glasgow, University of Strathclyde) and has taken several actions as a recovery strategy (Glasgow City Council, 2020[18]). Some of the actions include: i) the creation of a City Centre Task Force, to stimulate growth in the city centre after restrictions were lifted; ii) the management of grants made available by the Scottish Government to support businesses affected by the pandemic; and iii) the provision of economic and advisory support for newly unemployed people due to the pandemic (Glasgow City Council, 2021[19]).
In the UK, the government announced in November 2020 a GBP 12 billion stimulus package as part of the government’s Ten Point Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution aiming to benefit the green economy in terms of carbon capture, hydrogen, nuclear, electric vehicles and renewable energy. However, the initiative does not specify how the UK Government plans to boost activities such as reuse, remanufacturing, repair and high value (UK Government, 2020[20]).
Source: National Records of Scotland (2021[21]), Deaths Involving Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Scotland, https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/deaths-involving-coronavirus-covid-19-in-scotland; Glasgow City Council (2020[18]), “Post-Pandemic Economic Recovery Plan for Glasgow to be developed”, https://www.glasgow.gov.uk/article/25869/Post-Pandemic-Economic-Recovery-Plan-for-Glasgow-to-be-developed (accessed on 29 November 2020); Glasgow City Council (2021[19]), “Council updated on economic recovery progress and plans in Glasgow”, http://www.glasgow.gov.uk/index.aspx?articleid=26836; KPMG (2020[17]), Hard times: UK Economic Outlook, https://home.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/uk/pdf/2020/06/uk-economic-outlook-june.pdf (accessed on 29 November 2020); UK Government (2020[20]), “The ten point plan for a green industrial revolution”, https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-ten-point-plan-for-a-green-industrial-revolution (accessed on 29 April 2021).
Located along the north and south banks of the River Clyde in West Central Scotland, Glasgow is the third-largest city in the UK. In 2020, Glasgow was home to 633 120 inhabitants, projected to increase by 4.2% by 2043 (National Records of Scotland, 2020[22]) (Figure 1.3). In 2017, Glasgow was the most densely populated area in Scotland with 3 555 inhabitants per km2, way above the average level in Scotland (70 inhabitants per km2) (National Records of Scotland, 2019[23]). Following the collapse of the traditional industrial sectors from the 1970s, the city experienced a drastic population decrease of approximately 100 000 inhabitants between 1981 and 1994 (a reduction of 14.1%), due to massive emigration in search of employment opportunities. The recent population growth is due to the positive balance between birth and death rate since 2007 and the increased inward migration to the city (Understanding Glasgow, 2020[24]): total net migration in Glasgow increased from 2006 onwards, with a yearly average net migration of 4 000 people by 2019, mainly from overseas (National Records of Scotland, 2020[25]). Glasgow shows the most ethnically diverse population in Scotland, where the non-UK born population rose from 6% in 2001 to 12% in 2011 (Understanding Glasgow, 2020[24]).
Population growth, combined with changes in household structure, will require new infrastructure and demand for services. To accommodate the growing population, Glasgow City Council set the target of building 25 000 new houses between 2015 and 2025 through the Housing Strategy 2017-2022 (Glasgow City Council, 2017[26]). The total number of households is projected to increase in Glasgow by 16% between 2016 and 2041, slightly higher than the estimated growth in Scotland (13% for the same period) (National Records of Scotland, 2019[27]). In particular, there is an increasing trend of single-adult households, which will represent almost half (45%) of all households in Glasgow by 2043, an increase of 16% compared to 2018 (Understanding Glasgow, 2020[24]; National Records of Scotland, 2020[28]). The average household size is forecasted to decrease from 2.15 people to 2.00 people during the same period (National Records of Scotland, 2020[29]). On the one hand, the need for new housing is an opportunity to apply circular economy principles to the building and maintenance of infrastructure (see Chapter 2). On the other hand, the decline in household size implies a reduction in terms of material efficiency as the common household services, including appliances and installations, are shared by a smaller number of individuals (EEA, 2016[30]). Some studies also suggest that single-person households consume more electricity (between 23% and 77%) and more gas (between 38% and 54%) and use close to 50% more land in comparison with households composed of 2 or 4 people (Williams, 2005[31]). Per capita levels of waste generation also tend to grow as household sizes decrease (OECD, 2011[32]).
Note: Last update of the projections: 24 March 2020.
Source: National Records of Scotland (2018[33]), Scotland’s Population 2017 – The Registrar General’s Annual Review of Demographic Trends, https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/stats-at-a-glance/registrar-generals-annual-review (accessed on 10 December 2020); National Records of Scotland (2020[34]), Population Projections for Scottish Areas (2018-based), https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/sub-national-population-projections/2018-based (accessed on 10 December 2020).
The population in Glasgow is ageing, potentially bringing changes in energy consumption. Today, Glasgow is a predominantly young city, with less than a third of its citizens being over 50 years old. However, by 2038, the age ranges of 65-74 and over 75 will experience the highest increases (36.9% and 37.7% for the same period of time) (Figure 1.4). An older population is expected to consume higher levels of home-related services, such as heat, gas and other fuels (EC, 2008[35]). On the contrary, younger population groups are expected to decline by 7.1% (0-15 years) and 9.0% (16-29 years) between 2018 and 2038, mainly as a consequence of the continuous drop of birth rates in the city, which registered a 27% decline between 1991 and 2019 (National Records of Scotland, 2020[36]). This decline contrasts with the fact that, in 2018, Glasgow was the fifth city in the UK with the highest student retention rate after graduation (46%) and the highest in Scotland (Centre for Cities, 2019[37]).
Source: National Records of Scotland (2018[33]), Scotland’s Population 2017 – The Registrar General’s Annual Review of Demographic Trends, https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/stats-at-a-glance/registrar-generals-annual-review (accessed on 10 December 2020).
Unequal and low health standards and life expectancy are significant challenges for the city, giving rise to the so-called “Glasgow effect”.2 The concept was first introduced by Walsh et al. (2010[38]) and describes the higher levels of poor health experienced in Glasgow attributed to severe social and economic deprivation (e.g. unemployment, low levels of education) and the presence of a negative physical environment, mainly vacant and derelict land, having a negative impact on health (Walsh et al., 2016[39]). For both males and females born in 2016-18, life expectancy is the lowest in Scotland (73.4 for males and 78.7 for females). These life expectancy levels are below the average in the UK (81.3 in 2018) and in the OECD-36 (80.7 in 2017) (National Records of Scotland, 2019[40]; OECD, 2019[41]). According to the OECD Regional Well-Being data (2020[42]), health is the main issue for Scotland (4.9/10), ranking last among the 12 regions3 of the UK. In Glasgow, there are considerable health disparities among neighbourhoods. For instance, between 2008 and 2012, the male life expectancy at birth in the wealthy neighbourhoods of Cathcart and Simshill (where income deprivation only concerns 6.6% of inhabitants) was 81 years, 15 years higher than in the neighbourhoods of Ruchill and Possilpark (with 35% of its inhabitants in income deprivation). For females, the gap was slightly lower between both neighbourhoods (84.3 years and 73.1 years respectively) (Understanding Glasgow, 2020[43]).
The adverse physical environment has been identified as one of the major reasons to explain the excess of mortality of Scotland in comparison to the UK that goes beyond socio-economic causes. In 2019, more than half of the population in Glasgow lived within 500 metres of a derelict site (54.7%). Glasgow shows a high concentration of vacant and derelict land, as a consequence of the industrial legacy, which negatively impacts on health, environment, economy and social cohesion of the nearby areas (Scottish Land Commission, 2020[44]; Glasgow City Council, 2020[45]). The share of the population living within 500 metres of derelict land in Glasgow represents double the share in Scotland (28.4%) and only 11.7% of Glaswegians lived further than 1 kilometre from derelict land, while the case for almost half of the Scottish population (47.6%) (Figure 1.5). The most affected areas are those located in the north and east of the city. Other Scottish councils with the highest share of people living within 500 m of derelict land for the same year were North Lanarkshire (75.2%), Inverclyde (57.5%) and West Dunbartonshire (57.3%), all part of the Glasgow City Region (Scottish Government, 2020[46]). In 2018, the Scottish Land Commission and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) established the Vacant and Derelict Land Taskforce to work towards reusing the sites, improving wellbeing and reducing crime (Scottish Land Commission, 2020[47]). Glasgow City Council, through its Neighbourhoods, Regeneration and Sustainability Department, plans to launch a programme to re-establish productive use of brownfield and derelict land, which would receive funding from the Scottish Government’s Vacant and Derelict Land Fund. Some ways to do so are: rehabilitation and decontamination of old brownfield and industrial areas; new and improved green spaces to serve communities in areas of deprivation; research and development of sites for food cultivation; and continued investment and projects with Clyde Gateway and the Glasgow Canal Regeneration Partnership (Glasgow Canal Regeneration Partnership, 2014[48]).
Source: Scottish Government (2020[46]), Scottish Vacant and Derelict Land Survey 2019, https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-vacant-derelict-land-survey-2019/ (accessed on 4 December 2020).
The circular economy stands as an opportunity to improve health standards in Glasgow, as it can carry positive health implications. For instance, the reduction of the use of landfills and incineration, the reduction of waste generation and the increase of the use of clean energy can positively impact citizens’ health. The successful implementation of these actions could result in reduced air pollutants, GHG and other emissions, improving specific health areas such as those related to cardiovascular and respiratory problems (WHO, 2018[49]). In addition, donations and food banks to reduce food waste could help the urban poor.
Glasgow is one of the most deprived cities in Scotland, experiencing significant inequality within the city. Almost half of Glasgow’s residents (44%) live in the 20% of most deprived areas in Scotland. In contrast, only 12% of the population live in the least deprived 20% of areas in Scotland (Figure 1.6). According to the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2020, 10 areas of Glasgow4 have more than two-thirds of the population among the 5% most deprived areas of Scotland (Scottish Government, 2020[50]). In the city, more than one-third of all children lived under the poverty line in 2017 (GCPH, 2020[51]). In 2016, 19% of children lived in workless households, 6.5% higher than the Scottish average (12.5%). Approximately, one in five Glaswegians live in the second poorest quintile of Scotland’s areas and there are significant disparities in terms of child poverty among neighbourhoods (from areas with more than half of children in poverty or vulnerable to poverty to other areas where the share is below 5%) (Understanding Glasgow, 2020[24]). The Poverty Leadership Panel, created in 2013, launched the People Make Glasgow Fairer Strategy in 2016, which focused on four main areas: welfare reform; child poverty; housing; and employment and training (Glasgow City Council, 2019[52]). The circular economy is estimated to create job opportunities, due to the fact that an economy favouring repair, maintenance, upgrading, remanufacturing, reuse, recycling of materials and product-life extension, is more labour intensive than mining and manufacturing of a linear economy (Wijkman in OECD (2020[7])).
Note: The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation is a relative measure of deprivations. It divides Scotland into 6 976 data zones and ranks them from the most deprived zone in Scotland (ranked 1) to the least deprived zone in Scotland (ranked 6 976). The map displays the deciles by deprivation ranking: Most deprived decile; Second most deprived decile; Third most deprived decile; Fourth most deprived decile; Fifth most deprived decile; Sixth most deprived decile; Seventh most deprived decile; Eighth most deprived decile; Ninth most deprived decile; and Tenth most deprived decile.
Source: Scottish Government (2020[50]), Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2020: Introduction, https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-index-multiple-deprivation-2020/pages/5/ (accessed on 4 December 2020). Terms of Use: Open Government Licence. Contains Scottish Government & Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright & database right 2012-2020.
Glasgow has undergone a transition from an industrial to a post-industrial city during the last 40 years and, since 2016, the city has embarked on a circular transition (Box 1.3). In the 19th century, Glasgow’s economy relied on shipbuilding and heavy industry. However, in the 20th century, the city went through a revitalisation process, leading towards a transformation in the 21st century. During the second half of the 20th century, the rapid de-industrialisation and economic decline that took place in the city produced a substantial loss of employment and population. Nevertheless, during the last years of the century, Glasgow experienced a renaissance, whereby it became the centre of innovation, education, tourism and culture. Glasgow was designated European Capital of Culture in 1990 and British City of Architecture and Design in 1999 (OECD, 2002[53]). Since 2015, Glasgow has started its journey towards the circular economy transition, which is foreseen to bring a positive economic impact for the city. Projections show that the circular economy could boost the economy of the UK by GBP 75 million (WRAP UK, 2020[54]). In Scotland, the annual cost savings linked to the circular economy could amount to GBP 3 billion (Ellen MacArthur Foundation/Zero Waste Scotland/Scottish Enterprise, 2014[55]).
Glasgow represents one of the fastest-growing economies in the UK. However, the COVID-19 pandemic slowed down this pace, while Brexit will pose challenges to the economic future of Glasgow. In 2014, the city was the fastest growing city in the UK, with 7% GVA growth. However, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Glasgow registered the greatest economic decline (-10.4% annual GVA growth) in Scotland in 2020 (Glasgow Chamber of Commerce, 2021[56]). The Glasgow Economic Strategy prioritises 10 key sectors for economic growth by 2023: digital technology; finance and business services; creative economy; low carbon; health and life sciences; engineering, design and advanced manufacturing; tourism and events; universities and colleges; social enterprise; and childcare and social care (Glasgow City Council et al., 2019[57]). The impact of a hard Brexit is estimated to be close to 4%-5% of gross domestic product (GDP) 2 years after the conclusion of the transition period, which expired on 31 December 2020 (OECD, 2020[58]). According to the city council, many of the sectors that could be exposed to declining trade with the EU are crucial for Glasgow’s economy such as retail and wholesale, transport and warehousing, and other professional services. The exportation sector to the EU is projected to sustain almost 20 000 jobs in Glasgow through direct and indirect demand to the economy of the city (Glasgow City Council et al., 2019[57]).
Several cities transitioned from industrial cities to green ones:
Bilbao, Spain: During the 19th and 20th centuries, Bilbao’s economy was characterised by steel industry and shipbuilding, and it became one of the most important ports in Europe. In 1973, the economic crisis seriously affected the industry and, as a consequence, the city gave rise to an ambitious rehabilitation plan. In 1992, through the society for the urban regeneration of Bilbao and its surroundings, called Bilbao Ría 2000, the city started a radical transformation into an icon of services, tourism and culture. This conversion has led to numerous awards, such as the 1st Lee Kuan Yew World City Prize (2010).
Essen, Germany: The city, historically well-known for its coal mines, iron and steel plants, suffered a negative impact on the quality of water and air due to the closure of these facilities in the 1980s. Since then, the city began its transition towards an economy based on services, trade and higher education. The urban redevelopment project Green Centre (Gruene Mitte) was part of the transformation. As a result of the efforts taken by the city, the European Commission designated Essen as the European Green Capital for 2017 and the European Capital of Culture in 2010 representing the whole Ruhr metropolitan area.
Malmö, Sweden: The city of Malmö, which was commonly known for its industry based on shipyard and heavy industry, has undergone a transformation to a modern sustainable city since the beginning of the 21st century. This evolution is especially relevant in the Western Harbour district, which has been converted from a contaminated, disused shipping yard to a green suburb of knowledge and sustainable living. Another example within the Swedish city is the refurbished Augustenborg “Eco City”, which housed local industry workers and was becoming deteriorated and unappealing. The city council conducted a project to upgrade the existing household buildings making them more thermally efficient.
Pittsburgh, United States: The city has reconstructed its economy since its steel industry collapsed, resulting in the loss of some 150 000 manufacturing jobs in the 1980s and a 30% population decline between 1970 and 1990. The city made efforts to improve its environmental sustainability and, due to the urban environmental transformation that the city has undergone, it became in 2019 the third most liveable city in the United States according to the Global Liveability Index. The index, developed by the Economist Intelligence Unit, covers five main categories: stability; healthcare; culture and environment; education; and infrastructure.
Source: Climate Action (2013[59]), “Malmö – From industrial waste land to sustainable city”, https://www.climateaction.org/climate-leader-papers/ilmar_reepalu_mayor_city_of_malmoe_sweden (accessed on 28 April 2021); Bloomberg (2017[60]), “COP23: How cities can transition from industrial to sustainable”, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-13/cop23-how-cities-can-transition-from-industrial-to-sustainable (accessed on 28 April 2021); Our World (2017[61]), “Essen’s award-winning blueprint for greening the post-industrial city”, https://ourworld.unu.edu/en/essens-award-winning-blueprint-for-greening-the-postindustrial-city (accessed on 28 April 2021); Bizkaia Talent (2020[62]), Bilbao, de ciudad industrial a capital cultural, https://www.bizkaiatalent.eus/pais-vasco-te-espera/apuesta-de-futuro/industrial-cultural-servicios/ (accessed on 28 April 2021).
The finance sector plays a key role in Glasgow’s economy, as the city is the main location of finance and business services in Scotland. In 2019, Glasgow was the third-largest financial market in the UK and home to some of the most prominent business and financial organisations. The sector employs more than 50 000 Glaswegians. In 2001, Glasgow City Council and Scottish Enterprise launched the International Financial Services District (IFSD) to attract and host financial and business service companies (Glasgow City Council, 2020[63]). In 2018, the city hosted 3 355 companies in the sector, which registered a turnover of GBP 2.1 billion and a GVA of GBP 1.6 billion (Invest Glasgow, 2019[64]). The financial sector has started seizing the opportunities and scaling the circular economy. Between 2016 and 2020, the number of private market funds (including venture capital, private equity and private debt funds) with a focus on the circular economy has increased 10-fold (from 3 to 30). Moreover, assets managed by public equity funds addressing the circular economy skyrocketed from USD 0.3 billion in January 2020 to USD 2 billion in August 2020 (Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2020[65]). The Bank of Scotland recognises the circular economy as a pillar for rebuilding after the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic (Bank of Scotland, 2020[66]).
As Scotland’s most technologically advanced city and the 2nd in the UK, Glasgow has great potential to advance its circular transition through digitisation (CBRE, 2020[67]). In 2017, the digital technology industry in Glasgow generated a turnover of more than GBP 1 billion, hosting more than 500 companies specialised in innovative technology and accounting for 33 000 jobs (Invest Glasgow, 2019[68]). The city plans to collaborate with the digital industry to attract investments in digital infrastructure, including 5G technology, to boost economic growth and increasing digital penetration (Glasgow City Council et al., 2019[57]). In 2013, Glasgow was awarded GBP 24 million investment from the UK Government Innovate UK project to develop digital and data infrastructure initiatives to make it an interconnected smart city. The impact of the programme has been a return on the investment of GBP 144 million. The project included initiatives in the field of intelligent street lights and maximised the potential of open data (UK Government, 2017[69]). As the sector with the highest growth in Scotland by 2024, Scotland’s technological sector is forecasted to grow twice as fast as the overall economy (38% vs. 17.5%) in terms of GVA (Stelmain, 2018[70]). The significance of this sector in the city can be an opportunity for Glasgow’s circular transition. According to the OECD (2020[7]), 51% of surveyed cities and regions use digital tools to enable the circular economy, and 33% of cities and regions are planning to link digitalisation and their circular economy initiatives in the short term. Some of the opportunities arising from the use of digitisation include: material exchange platforms; tracking of waste for better collection and recycling; open-access tools; awareness-raising platforms; and tools to connect business across the value chain.
As a major international gateway for Scotland, tourism is a key sector in Glasgow’s economy with considerable potential to be a driver for the circular transition in the city. In 2018, Glasgow attracted 2.3 million international and domestic tourists, generating GBP 662 million for the local economy (Invest Glasgow, 2020[71]; Glasgow City Council, 2019[72]). In 2019, Glasgow City Council launched the Glasgow Tourism and Visitor Plan to 2023, aiming to achieve a turnover of GBP 771 million and the creation of 6 600 new jobs (Glasgow City Council et al., 2019[57]). As the first United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) City of Music since 2008, Glasgow welcomes an average of 130 music events per week, the highest in the UK. In 2017, Glasgow hosted more than 2 400 creative companies, the fifth-highest in the UK, 25% more than in 2013. This business growth resulted in more than 20 000 people being employed and GBP 1.45 billion in revenue in 2017 (Invest Glasgow, 2020[73]). The tourism and the creative industry sectors are linked to many services (e.g. energy, water, waste management, food and transport) that can contribute, if wisely managed, to a more sustainable and low-carbon economy (OECD, 2013[74]).
Glasgow is the UK’s leading retail destination in terms of spending potential after London, and it ranks 11th in Europe. The sector generates annually a GVA of GBP 763 million and it employs approximately 35 000 people in Glasgow (Invest Glasgow, 2020[71]). Glasgow’s main retail offer is concentrated within one square mile in the city centre, also known as the Style Mile, which, in 2020 and 2021, suffered the consequences of the lockdowns due to the COVID-19 crisis. Linked to the retail and fashion sector, there is a growing potential of the second-hand market in the city, following the national trends. In 2013, there were 461 000 jobs in circular economy activities in the UK, 32 600 of them in the retail sale of second-hand goods (LWRB, 2015[75]). In general, the popularity of second-hand is on the raise as more people look to shop ethically and embrace the circular economy (World Economic Forum, 2020[76]).
SMEs prevail in Glasgow’s business fabric and they have been the main target of circular-economy-related initiatives set up in the city so far through awareness-raising initiatives, financial support and capacity building programmes. Of the total of existing companies in March 2020, 85% had less than 10 employees and only 3% had more than 50 employees, which is very similar to the UK and Scotland (2% for both) (ONS, 2020[77]). The rate of business start-ups in Glasgow has decreased slightly since 2016, from 63.7 start-ups for every 10 000 adults in 2016 to 58.4 in 2018. The proximity to university and talent, as well as the business opportunities available in the city, are identified as the most valued factors for entrepreneurship activities in the city (Tech Nation, 2018[78]). In recognition of the efforts made by the city to boost entrepreneurship, together with Lombardy, Italy, and Małopolska, Poland, Glasgow was awarded European Entrepreneurial Region in 2016 by the European Committee of the Regions (CoR). Glasgow became the second city to receive this recognition after Lisbon, Portugal, in 2015 (CoR, 2016[79]). The Glasgow Economic Strategy set the objective of creating 50 000 new jobs by 2023. Yet many people have insecure and low-quality jobs. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Glasgow was the Scottish city with most people receiving Universal Credit, a financial support provided by the UK Government for people looking for work or on a low income. The COVID-19 crisis has boosted the number of applications in Glasgow compared to pre-pandemic levels, from 33 656 beneficiaries to 52 946 between February and April 2020 (Weakley and Waite, 2020[80]).
The transition to the circular economy in Glasgow can be a potentially powerful tool to stimulate job creation in the city. The shift towards a circular economy can generate local employment as repair, maintenance, upgrading, remanufacturing, reuse, recycling of materials and product-life extension are more labour intensive than mining and manufacturing (Wijkman and Skånberg, 2017[81]). Glasgow is the Scottish city with the highest number of jobs linked to the circular economy (34 782 jobs and 8.3% of total) (Circle Economy, 2020[82]). Moreover, business practices with an important potential in the field of the circular economy, such as the health, education, manufacturing and food and beverages sectors provided in 2016 over 117 500 jobs, almost 30% of Glasgow’s workforce, and had an economic value of over GBP 5.5 billion (27% of Glasgow’s total economy) (Circle Economy, 2016[83]).
The generation of per capita household waste has decreased in recent years; however recycling is still low. Between 2011 and 2019, the per capita household waste generated in Glasgow has decreased by 5.0%. In 2019, Glasgow’s households generated 398 kg per person, which is slightly below the Scottish average, 443 kg per person. However, Glasgow registered an increasing trend since 2016, when it reached its lowest point since 2011 with 353 kg per person (Figure 1.7). Only 24.7% of the total household waste generation is recycled in the city, being the local authority with the lowest rate in Scotland (excluding the Scottish islands) and well below the Scottish average (44.9% in 2019) and the levels of the United Kingdom (45.0% in 2018) (Figure 1.8) (Government Statistical Service, 2020[84]; SEPA, 2020[85]). Almost half of waste generated in Glasgow’s households is sent to landfill (49% in 2019), which is much higher than the average in Scotland (31.3%) and it stands above the levels of the main Scottish cities such as Aberdeen (17.7%), Edinburgh (4.5%) and Dundee (6.9%) (SEPA, 2019[86]). The city has been put in place measures to improve the efficiency of its waste management system and increase its recycling rates. Some of the measures of the “Tackling Glasgow’s Waste – Cleansing Waste Strategy and Action Plan 2015 to 2020” included the construction of a residual waste treatment plant, which occurred in 2019 (Glasgow Recycling and Renewable Energy Centre - GRREC). The plant will divert 90% of all Glasgow’s waste from landfill and save 90 000 tonnes of CO2 emissions per year (Glasgow City Council, 2019[87]). Other initiatives carried out by the city included the expansion of recycling points over the city and a communications strategy for recycling (Glasgow City Council, 2010[88]). Further information on waste management is provided in Chapter 2.
Note: Household waste generated includes waste collected by local authorities at the door (“kerbside collection”), waste from sites such as recycling collection bins at supermarkets (“Bring” sites), and waste collected from households at local authority drop-off points (“Civic amenity sites”).
Source: Scotland’s Environment (2020[89]), Household Waste.
Note: Household waste means waste generated by households. Waste from households includes household collection rounds, other household collections such as bulky waste collections, waste deposited by householders at Household Waste Recycling Centres (HWRCs) and recycling points / bring banks (SEPA, 2011[90]).
Source: SEPA (SEPA, 2019[86]), Scottish Household waste – summary data 2019.
The total energy consumption in Glasgow (measured in GWh) reduced by 18.2% between 2005 and 2018, lower than Scotland (15.0%) and United Kingdom (15.8%) for the same period. This decrease is also steeper than the average of the EU. Some of the reasons of this decrease could include improvements in energy efficiency, a reduction of energy-intensive heavy industries and a higher consumer awareness (Smart Business, 2018[91]). Regarding the energy distribution by origin (Figure 1.9), gas is the major source in Glasgow, accounting for approximately a half of the total consumption (45.4%), followed by petroleum products (29.8%) and electricity (24.1%). Coal, manufactured fuels and bioenergy account for less than 1% in total. These figures diverge from the situation in Scotland and United Kingdom, where petroleum products are the main energy source (46.1% and 40.6% respectively) and gas represents approximately one third of the consumption (32.3% and 34.5% respectively). Furthermore, both Scotland and United Kingdom show a lower consumption of electricity (16.4% and 19.1%), while the use of bioenergy is more prevalent (3.4% and 2.8%) than in Glasgow (0.6%) (Government of the United Kingdom, 2020[92]).
Note: Coal and petroleum products include consumption in the following sectors: Heat Generation, Energy Industry use, Industry, Public administration, Commercial, Agriculture, Miscellaneous. Manufactured fuels includes only manufactured solid fuels and not derived gases.
Source: Government of the United Kingdom (2020[92]) Total final energy consumption at regional and local authority level: 2005 to 2018.
Glasgow’s CO2 emissions per capita have remained below the levels of Scotland and the United Kingdom in the last 14 years. CO2 emissions per capita have sharply decreased since 20055 (from 7.2 tonnes/capita in 2005 to 4.1 tonnes/capita in 2018), below both the regional and national averages (5.3 tonnes/capita and 5.2 tonnes/capita respectively). In 2018, CO2 emissions were similarly distributed among the three main sectors in Glasgow: industry and commercial sector (36%), domestic sector (30%) and transport (36%). However, while emissions from the transport sectors have remained stable between 2005 and 2018, those produced by the consumption and commercial sectors respectively shrank by 47% and 44%. (Figure 1.10). The city has already achieved the objective set in the Energy and Carbon Masterplan (2015), which set out the target of reducing Glasgow’s carbon dioxide emissions by 30% by 2020 from 2006 levels (Glasgow City Council, 2014[93]). According to the latest available data for 2018, emissions dropped by 37% from 2006 levels (Government of the United Kingdom, 2020[94]).
Continuing the recent positive trend, the city expects to become the first carbon neutral city in United Kingdom by 2030 (Figure 1.11), while Scotland and United Kingdom plan to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045 and 2050 respectively (Glasgow City Council, 2019[95]) (Scottish Government, 2019[96]). Considering that the use of materials accounts for up close to two thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions, there is a significant opportunity to potentially reduce emissions through effective material management policies, prevention of material consumption, eco-design and reuse.
Source: Government of the United Kingdom (2020[94]), UK local authority and regional carbon dioxide emissions national statistics: 2005 to 2018.
Source: Government of the United Kingdom (2020[94]), UK local authority and regional carbon dioxide emissions national statistics: 2005 to 2018.
Road traffic is the main source of air pollution in the city and one of the main environmental concerns. Glasgow was the Scottish city with the highest traffic volume in 2018 (measured in million vehicle kilometres), representing a 14% increase since 1998 (Transport Scotland, 2019[97]). However, alternative means of transport are not convenient and affordable for all. While approximately half (46%) did not own a car, 74% of households in Glasgow did not have access to a bike in 2018, above the Scottish average (65%). Access to a bike in Glasgow varies across the city, and people in lower income areas are less likely to cycle. Furthermore, public transport is not accessible for everyone, as more than half (55%) of Glaswegians consider local bus service is not value for money (Glasgow City Council, 2020[98]). In 2017 Glasgow registered a higher mean population exposure to PM2.5 (Micrograms per cubic metre) than the main Scottish cities (8.4 in Glasgow; 6.9 in Edinburgh; 6.5 in Dundee; and 6.2 in Aberdeen). However, despite being 16% above the Scottish average, it remained well below the OECD standard (12.5) and the United Kingdom (10.4) (OECD, 2020[99]). In order to reduce pollution levels, Glasgow introduced Scotland’s first Low Emission Zones in the city centre in 2018. This measure aims at reducing pollution levels and it is being implemented in two phases: the first one only applying to local service buses, with the full implementation targeting all vehicles. As the temporary pause in plans to implement Low Emission Zones (LEZ) in Scotland due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the full implementation of the LEZ is likely apply to all vehicles by 2023, requiring emission standards to all vehicles. The COVID-19 pandemic is considerably affecting the CO2 emissions levels in the city. While the confinement measures introduced in the United Kingdom in March 2020 have had a considerable effect on the traffic levels and air quality, traffic levels increased sharply when lockdown restrictions were lifted, occasionally exceeding the pre-confinement standards (Scottish Environment Protection Agency, 2020[100]).
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Notes
← 1. Cllr Susan Aitken’s speech at the 2018 Circular Economy Hotspot Scotland held in Glasgow (Circular Glasgow, 2018[101])
← 2. See https://www.gcph.co.uk/assets/0000/0801/GCPH_Briefing_Paper_25_for_web.pdf.
← 3. The 12 regions included in the OECD Regional Well-Being data are: East Midlands, East of England, Greater London, North East England, North West England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, South East England, South West England, Wales, West Midlands and Yorkshire and The Humber.
← 4. Central Easterhouse, Glenwood South, Drumchapel North, Milton West, North Barlanark and Easterhouse South, Wyndford, Crookston South, Drumry East, and Parkhead West and Barrowfield.
← 5. 2005 is the earliest year for which data is available. Source: Government of the United Kingdom (2020[92]), Total final energy consumption at regional and local authority level: 2005 to 2018.